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Rank the future of our fringy starters

The results of the most recent poll are a bit surprising to me, and got me wondering how the results would change if I altered the question a bit; Rank these 5 pitchers in order of effectiveness over the remainder of their major league career (Most effective first, least effective last).

The pitchers (listed alphabetically)
Lance Broadway
Jose Contreras
John Danks
Jack Egbert
Gavin Floyd

Is there a player who is a sure bust there? Is there a clear #1? Is there a surprise in store from Broadway or Egbert, or to a lesser extent, Floyd? Rank the pitchers and give a little insight into your reasoning in the comments. (I'll chime in with my own thoughts at some point.)