likes: confusing stats... dislikes: n00bs
Changes, Notes, Etc.
I took out the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs) and the replacement level (20 runs) columns and just include them in the end WAR number. Instead, it's offensive, defensive, and total runs above average per 150 games played. I think it's probably easier to look at and see what the hell is going on with so many players to look at.
Also, I wish I knew how to label google doc graph points, but I don't. If it isn't apparent, that's each player's oR150 and dR150 plotted via google's x/y scatter plot tool. CHONE projects everyone within the bounds of +/- 2 wins on both axes and by and large the players teams actually want playing a lot fall within a fairly narrow band. Mitch Meier and David Dellucci are pretty much just there to keep Jose Guillen* company.
Players And Stuff
I think it's probably unlikely these players aggregate so closely at the end of the season. Most of these players have caveats attached, like recent injury, age, drastic splits that make for cautious predictions and a wider range of possible outcomes. This is mostly why I like this approach. This is basically the available talent and WAR150 is a pretty good insight into true talent, especially when we can look at them in aggregate.
Detroit has solid depth in the corners backing up an aged Maggs and injury prone Guillen. Raburn and Thames are nice pieces when not asked to do too much. Raburn has a solid overall game, while Thames is well known for killing lefties.
Minnesota just has depth. Well, Span is obviously good and he's basically another center fielder out there. It remains to be seen just how good he will be with the bat. Kubel probably shouldn't be on there, as he's a DH and, obviously, a butcher. Delmon Young is enigmatic, but presumably unbenchable which means doing exactly what with Michael Cuddyer? He's owed $16 million over the next two seasons for replaceable production. The end result may well be less than stellar production from disgruntled employees until Bill Smith and Co. find a more soothing arrangement of talent. Gone unchecked, this is the sort of thing that could lead to...bad team chemistry. On the other hand, there's still plenty of upside in Young and Span.
Kansas City has a similar problem* and is trying to resolve it by making Mark Teahen into a second baseman. This will not work, at least in the short term. To me, it looks like Dayton tying himself into knots out-thinking himself. If the Royals have to eat the contract and Guillen is going to be nearly replacement level anyway, why not play Teahen in right and tell Guillen not to show up?
The Indians really only have two viable options until Matt LaPorta arrives. Choo will, like Quentin and Span, get a chance to solidify his breakout and Ben Francisco will probably be boring. CHONE only sees LaPorta as a league average hitter at this point in his career. Either way, that's as much as Ben Francisco brings to the table without the upside. As soon as LaPorta is ready, he's getting plugged in.
All told, it's pretty clear that there are no obviously separate talents in this group and the Sox OF will have to perform beyond what is expected of them for any leverage to be gained here. Each team has its lottery tickets and some have some anchors to work around, but there are no Mauers or Sizemores here.
White Sox Corner Options, Specifically.
Q! has question marks, for sure. Personally, I don't know if I'll ever be able to feel like Carlos is invulnerable. I don't question his resolve, but I do wonder how long he can keep it up. Maybe that's what makes the Superman references comforting to SSS faithful. Still, even if he may have come out of his icy winter chamber a human after all, I'm sure he can do at least as well as CHONE projects. Meanwhile, JD is as JD does. If he stays healthy he'll hit as long as his luck stays even. Expect twice his projected offensive runs per 150 games if so. As for depth, there isn't any, unless Dayan spits hot fire all over Birmingham and Charlotte in rapid order.
*If he's seriously going to be that bad, the Royals won't let him start, right? Imagine if the White Sox had signed Brian Anderson to a 3 year contract for $12 Million per that ended in 2010. There's a decent argument that this was worse. If CHONE is right, they should just eat the contract. I don't see anyone else wanting anything to do with Guillen.