clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Community Projection Results 2011: Position Players

Those look pretty good, right?  Aside from a few arbitrary baselines I had to input, that's what you get when we combine the community wOBA, defense, and plate appearances into one big WAR number for each player.  For reference, here are the actual results, with Marcel and ZiPS to compare them to:


For ZiPS, I had to convert the triple slash lines using a slightly more complex method than the quick-and-dirty one I referred y'all to.*  If I take out the guys the systems know the least about (Morel, De Aza, Lillibridge, Viciedo and Flowers), the average wOBA for the community is .333 compared to .327 for Marcel and .332 for ZiPS.  The league average wOBA for Marcel this year is apparently .321.  Ours is .330.  I have no idea what ZiPS' is.  So even though it looks like Marcel hates us, over the course of the season that would be 15 or so more runs for those players using the Marcel projections.  Marcel doesn't hate us.  We hate us.  Even after management went out and bought Adam Dunn and brought back Paul Konerko and AJ Pierzynski. Top that, Mets fans.

Though really, there isn't that much disagreement.  Marcel thinks Quentin's bat is worth about 5 more runs over the course of the season than we do.  We think Rios is better by 4.  The only real discrepancy (9 runs) is Brent Morel and that's because Marcel gives league average-ish projections to players who have very very few career major league PA.

That said, I still don't think you'll see too many projection systems actually guessing our position players are worth 20 WAR on average over the course of the season.  More like 17 or 18.  Overall, I'll guess we'll end up pegged at 86 or so wins by most forecasts. And 73 by PECOTA.  Presumably we'll do a better job of taking Herm and Coop into account, but we'll also fall in love with our favorite guys.  As we'll see, those are apparently the pitchers.  I think I'm settling on 88 wins for my personal O/U.  That sounds about right, right?  Maybe I just don't know how to take good news either. Anyway, count on a follow up post for the pitchers sometime past noon.



*If you tried to figure out Juan Pierre's that way you'd find it didn't come out to what I said it is.  That's because I added back in the value of his stolen bases.  He's really the only one on the team who gets most of his value that way, so it seemed dumb to leave them out.