Although the All-Star break is still two weeks away, the White Sox locked the official first half in the books by playing -- and winning -- their 81st game of the season on Wednesday.
The 81st game is a great time to pull out the "on pace for" stats. Not only is three months is a pretty significant sample size, but moreover, all you have to do is double the numbers, and suddenly a player's streaks and slumps become significantly more "real."
We know Adam Dunn is struggling, but holy crap, he's only on pace for 14 homers.
Matt Thornton is the unluckiest pitcher in the world, and at his current rate, he might set some sort of relief record with 22 unearned runs.
Below the jump, I've extrapolated everybody's first 81 games over a full season, and grouped players into "better than that," "worse than that" and "about right." There are some easy decisions, but other calls are going to be doozies -- and debatable.
Position players
| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Pierzynski* | 136 | 538 | 510 | 40 | 148 | 28 | 2 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 32 | .290 | .325 | .388 | .713 | 28 | 4 |
| Paul Konerko | 156 | 664 | 584 | 78 | 188 | 24 | 0 | 42 | 122 | 2 | 2 | 70 | 94 | .322 | .393 | .579 | .972 | 12 | 6 |
| Gordon Beckham | 144 | 534 | 486 | 62 | 110 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 112 | .226 | .288 | .333 | .622 | 10 | 14 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 156 | 682 | 624 | 94 | 174 | 38 | 2 | 14 | 72 | 6 | 4 | 52 | 84 | .279 | .335 | .413 | .749 | 24 | 2 |
| Brent Morel | 112 | 384 | 380 | 30 | 94 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 50 | .247 | .262 | .305 | .567 | 6 | 4 |
| Juan Pierre* | 154 | 696 | 624 | 70 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 20 | 20 | 46 | 42 | .256 | .317 | .301 | .618 | 12 | 10 |
| Alexis Rios | 154 | 602 | 568 | 72 | 70 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 10 |
10 | 38 | 62 | .218 | .269 | .324 | .593 | 24 | 2 |
| Carlos Quentin | 152 | 632 | 544 | 72 | 72 | 46 | 0 | 34 | 98 | 2 | 2 | 56 | 88 | .257 | .359 | .529 | .889 | 10 | 34 |
| Adam Dunn* | 134 | 558 | 462 | 40 | 40 | 24 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 84 | 200 | .173 | .308 | .316 | .624 | 10 | 8 |
| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | |||||
| Brent Lillibridge | 102 | 260 | 220 | 44 | 58 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 30 | 12 | 8 | 22 | 68 | .264 | .359 | .500 | .859 | 0 | 12 |
| Omar Vizquel# | 72 | 232 | 214 | 26 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 24 | .271 | .298 | .336 | .635 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Teahen* | 68 | 166 | 144 | 16 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 32 | .208 | .313 | .319 | .633 | 2 | 0 |
| Ramon Castro | 40 | 132 | 120 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 40 | .233 | .303 | .417 | .720 | 0 | 0 |
Better than that: Brent Morel, Mark Teahen, Gordon Beckham, Adam Dunn.
Worse than that: Brent Lillibridge, A.J. Pierzynski (slightly), Omar Vizquel.
About right: Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Alexei Ramirez, Ramon Castro, Juan Pierre (rate, not quantity).
Arguments in brief: I'm bullish on Konerko, down on Rios, and Dayan Viciedo will probably take the biggest bite out of Pierre's playing time.
Pitchers
| Pos | W | L | G | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | WP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | Gavin Floyd | 12 | 14 | 4.19 | 32 | 0 | 202.0 | 190 | 98 | 94 | 22 | 54 | 138 | 8 | 10 | 1.208 |
| SP | Mark Buehrle* | 12 | 10 | 3.65 | 32 | 0 | 212.0 | 228 | 86 | 86 | 22 | 50 | 106 | 2 | 0 | 1.311 |
| SP | Philip Humber | 14 | 8 | 2.89 | 32 | 0 | 193.1 | 142 | 66 | 62 | 14 | 46 | 118 | 8 | 14 | 0.972 |
| SP | John Danks* | 6 | 16 | 4.21 | 30 | 0 | 188.0 | 214 | 94 | 88 | 22 | 56 | 130 | 10 | 8 | 1.351 |
| SP | Edwin Jackson | 8 | 12 | 4.13 | 30 | 0 | 187.1 | 214 | 90 | 86 | 12 | 64 | 162 | 0 | 12 | 1.484 |
| SP | Jake Peavy | 8 | 2 | 4.23 | 14 | 0 | 76.2 | 64 | 36 | 36 | 6 | 14 | 64 | 2 | 4 | 1.017 |
| Pos | W | L | G | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | WP | |||
| CL | Sergio Santos | 4 | 6 | 3.16 | 64 | 32 | 76.0 | 44 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 40 | 98 | 4 | 4 | 1.105 |
| RP | Jesse Crain | 6 | 4 | 2.75 | 68 | 2 | 72 | 42 | 22 | 22 | 6 | 30 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| RP | Chris Sale* | 4 | 0 | 3.86 | 60 | 4 | 65.1 | 64 | 28 | 28 | 6 | 28 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 1.408 |
| RP | Matt Thornton* | 0 | 8 | 3.72 | 64 | 4 | 58.2 |
76 | 46 | 24 | 4 | 28 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 1.806 |
| RP | Will Ohman* | 0 | 2 | 5.06 | 52 | 0 | 42.2 | 44 | 26 | 24 | 8 | 12 | 48 | 0 | 2 | 1.313 |
| Tony Pena | 2 | 2 | 6.20 | 34 | 0 | 40.2 | 50 | 30 | 28 | 4 | 20 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1.721 | |
| Brian Bruney | 2 | 0 | 3.86 | 22 | 0 | 20.0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.600 |
Better than that: John Danks (if healthy), Matt Thornton, Chris Sale.
Worse than that: Jesse Crain, Sergio Santos, Phil Humber (not that much).
About right: Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Jake Peavy, Will Ohman, Pena/Bruney.
Arguments in brief: Santos' workload will be a new strain on him, Crain has been rut-prone in the past, Humber might see a gentle, 2005-Jon-Garland second-half regression, and Jake Peavy seems like he's going to hit the DL again.
There are reasons for optimism, because the returns to the mean should outweigh the regression cases. The only problem is that it requires faith in players who haven't shown the ability to sustain anything this season. The health of Danks and Peavy loom large, and Dayan Viciedo's promotion will alter the landscape, but in the end, everybody's looking at Adam Dunn. Here's hoping he's ready for it.