We've played 79 games so really there's 83 games left, but taking that into consideration I decided I'd take a look at every player on the White Sox and take a look at what they were projecting to finish the season with. First of all I removed the Thrillabridge and Kosuke from the current stats and also from my projections in the future. I also did 2 fun tricks with 2 of the players for their projection. So here is out current statistics for this season.
Now that we're past the jump I can talk about the entire extrapolation and some of the fun things I did with the numbers.
What you are about to see is the overall team's numbers so far this year and directly below them an extrapolation based on what they've done as a White Sox player this year. All extrapolations are based on 79 games unless noted in that player's brief overview. Enjoy!
First the counting numbers... 29 HRs isn't going to happen. I'll eat my hat if they do. I personally think that 21 or 22 will be nice, but 29... phew... Same goes with 6 triples, 92 RBI, and 139 games played. The averages AJ has put up thus far is awesome. I could see the slugging go down to below .500, but the rest of it isn't that far-fetched.
Paulie's slumping right now so that hurts my actual perception of him, but when I look at those numbers I say "yes, yes, ok, seems about right, might be a little low, sure, ok." The number that stands out to me is 82 RBI. That seems low. 95 seems about where he'll end up, unless of course the wrist is bigger than what we think it is.
18 HRs? 70 RBI? <100 Ks? I'll take it. If you just pencil these numbers in the 9 spot and let it ride, I believe we're a 90 win team and moving on to the playoffs. Do I think these happen? No. Do I believe they can happen, I'd put it at 50/50. If we see the April/Early May Beckham, then there's no way in hell he comes anywhere near this. If we see the Late May/June Beckham, then we're set.
Alexei's starting to turn it around. The 21 steals would be a concession of a pretty down season from Missile.
This is one player I had fun with in the extrapolation. I took the 7games he's been in black and extrapolated that. I think he'll be shutout in the home run category and he'll hit at least 5 HRs the rest of the way. I do like the 13 doubles, and think that will happen. 51 RBI? Yes please. I think 35-40 is more likely. This is just a fun take the numbers he's done in 7 games and extrapolate that. SSS indeed.
He's not going to hit 29, but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets to 25 this year. The RBI total seems about spot on, and 25 walks seems a little low, ok, no it doesn't. I'm amazed that Tank only has 5 doubles so far this year. I feel like he's going to have more over the second half of the season, especially if he continues the regular playing time. But people apparently don't like Tank?
Alejandro De Aza
For some reason I didn't realize De Aza has struck out the 2nd most on the team. But with a 0.774 OBP the K's can keep coming. The numbers don't seem too far off for
.839 OPS seemed like a pipe dream last year didn't it? His speed number of 10 triples and an 80% steal rate seems unattainable. The rest of his numbers don't seem that crazy when you watch his approach at the plate.
The number that stands out to me is 79. He's played in every game this year. Also his TTO% of 62.39% is historical but we know that. I don't think he continues to play every game, and I don't think he gets a RBI for every base hit the rest of the way. 42 HRs, 100 RBI, and 200 Ks seem very realistic and if he gets hot for a month, he can definitely hit his projections.
I don't think he plays these many games. I'm just going to leave that at that.
I really hope he gets a hot August and September ala Morel last year. I don't know what to think of these numbers so far, it's disappointing but not overly surprising.
50% of his at bats have ended in strikeouts. He's the second highest TTO% on the team, but that's at 51%. This kid needs to hit, and I think he needs more at bats. Throw him out there every Peavy and Floyd start and you're well on your way to getting him more playing time.
I don't think he'll be back this season. I believe that he has an impending back surgery coming that no one is talking about because Youk is here. For his extrapolation I put in the games he was on the 25 man roster and extrapolated from there. That's 35 GP in 39 games. He's not playing 74 games in the next 83.
He's been on the roster for 22 games. So I took his 12 games played and extrapolated the numbers as if continues to play 12 times in every 22 games. I think that pace will continue. I don't think his gaudy 0.389/0.389/0.444 numbers do. But 5 doubles, 5 SBs, and 5 RBI? I think he'll get more of each over the 57 games he's projected to play. I do believe the 29 Ks are pretty accurate.
Yeah... 8 CGs and 230 IPs? This isn't Doc Holiday, but he's having a similar type season to the good Doctor. I'm going to be happy if Peavy can avoid a DL stint, and get to 30 starts. *knocks heavily on wood*
Gavin is having a Gavin season and he's due for his month of hot pitching that allows him to have the sub 4.50 ERA. If he doesn't get that he'll still be around 200 IPs, double digit wins and decent amount of Ks. Nothing to write home about, but also nothing to say "that wasn't valuable". Everyone says it, his stuff is good, his ability to use it all the time isn't there.
Give him the Cy Young and then arrest Coop and Robin if they allow him to go 200 innings. I can imagine the ERA and WHIP wouldn't be too far off, but his counting numbers would be hindered by ~160 innings limit.
I hope he can come back from the DL and pitch like he did in the middle of last year. I would like to see that ERA get down below 5.
See Humber, Philip but make it August and make it a great playoff run.
May I suggest a nickname of "The Sword"? He slices through line ups and his name doesn't sound too far off of what the samurai use. Am I the man for suggesting that? That 2.19 ERA is due for a correction, but would anyone be shocked if he ended the season at 5-3 and 2.89 ERA? 100 IPs might be low as I can see him taking a couple of those Sale starts if Danks comes back in August.
Relief pitchers aren't really my specialty and they are their percentage stats are the epitome of SSS. But I would like to see the bullpen end the season with a lower than 1.32 WHIP as that's the one stat I look at. I think they'll close the season with more than 33 saves, but that's such a stupid stat.
You know what, I actually can see this being his statline at the end of the season. Maybe a couple more IPs, a little lower ERA and WHIP and a couple more Ks. But overall this seasons reasonable.
SSS abound with these 2. There's no way Leyson continues to pitch a perfect season with 1/3 of his outs coming by way of the K. If Bruney finishes the season with a 2.00 WHIP he will have an ERA. Those are 2 statements I will stand by for the rest of the season.