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It's a good thing Addison Reed has taken the next step in his development. Had he started 2013 as he finished 2012, Robin Ventura would be aging like he drank from the wrong grail, and White Sox fans wouldn't be far behind.
Reed has factored into 17 of the White Sox's 21 victories this season, recording 16 saves to along with a win. That's what happens when you pair lights-out starting pitching with a loose-filament offense.
At least Reed has been a kind and benevolent closer. He's blown just one save, and out of the 16 he's converted, six of them came via the 1-2-3 inning. That means he's already eclipsed his total from last season, when he worked a clean inning just five times out of 33 save opportunities.
That kind of effectiveness has put Reed on a pace for 58 saves this season, one better than the club record his bullpen coach, Bobby Thigpen, set in 1990.
One problem: The 1990 White Sox won 94 games.
The 2013 White Sox are on pace for 76.
That gives you the idea that this combination of an impressive save total and an unimpressive team win total puts Reed on a trajectory unlike any other closer in White Sox history.
Pardon the dramatic phrasing, because closer history is far younger than White Sox history. The modern closer is a relatively recent invention, with Ed Farmer's 1980 the first iteration (30 saves, one out short of 100 innings). If Reed holds down the job wire to wire, it'll be just the 19th time the Sox have deployed a set closer in their 112 seasons.
(And nearly all of them are variations of "Robert." Starting from the mid-80s, Bob James begat Bobby Thigpen, who begat Roberto Hernandez, who begat Bobby Howry. Then, after a six-year Bob Famine, Bobby Jenks held down the job for five seasons. So I guess you could call the current Sox closer "Robert Reed" if you want. "Mike Brady" would be pushing it.)
I can put together a few charts showing just how rare of an animal the comfortable victory is this year. I went through each of the complete-closer seasons, looking for how many team victories the Sox had by their closer's 16th save, and how many saves the closer had recorded by his team's 21st win.
Reed is comfortably ahead of the pace in the first category:
Year | Closer | Team wins at 16th save |
2013 | Addison Reed | 21 |
2007 | Bobby Jenks | 27 |
1990 | Bobby Thigpen | 28 |
2009 | Bobby Jenks | 32 |
1986 | Bob James | 32 |
1980 | Ed Farmer | 32 |
1997 | Roberto Hernandez | 34 |
2006 | Bobby Jenks | 35 |
1989 | Bobby Thigpen | 35 |
2010 | Bobby Jenks | 36 |
2008 | Bobby Jenks | 38 |
1988 | Bobby Thigpen | 39 |
1991 | Bobby Thigpen | 41 |
1993 | Roberto Hernandez | 42 |
2000 | Keith Foulke | 43 |
1996 | Roberto Hernandez | 43 |
1995 | Roberto Hernandez | 44 |
2001 | Keith Foulke | 45 |
1999 | Bobby Howry | 46 |
Fun Fact No. 1: In the lost 1994 season, Hernandez only saved 14 games ... for a team that went 67-46.
As you might expect, Reed also is comfortably ahead of the field by the Sox's 21st victory.
Year |
Closer |
Saves by 21st team win |
2013 |
Addison Reed |
16 |
2007 |
Bobby Jenks |
13 |
1980 |
Ed Farmer |
11 |
1990 |
Bobby Thigpen |
11 |
1995 |
Roberto Hernandez |
11 |
1996 |
Roberto Hernandez |
11 |
1997 |
Roberto Hernandez |
10 |
2009 |
Bobby Jenks |
10 |
1989 |
Bobby Thigpen |
10 |
2001 |
Keith Foulke |
10 |
2008 |
Bobby Jenks |
9 |
2006 |
Bobby Jenks |
9 |
1991 |
Bobby Thigpen |
9 |
1986 |
Bob James |
9 |
1999 |
Bobby Howry |
8 |
1988 |
Bobby Thigpen |
8 |
1993 |
Roberto Hernandez |
7 |
2010 |
Bobby Jenks |
7 |
2000 |
Keith Foulke |
5 |
Fun Fact No. 2: The 2000 AL Central winners averaged 8.24 runs over their first 21 victories. The 2013 White Sox? 4.29.
If that sounds absurdly low, that's because it absolutely is. Here's one more chart for runs per victory this season, through Wednesday:
Team | Wins | Runs per win |
Detroit | 25 | 7.32 |
Toronto | 19 | 7.11 |
Cleveland | 26 | 6.92 |
Oakland | 25 | 6.68 |
Houston | 14 | 6.57 |
Los Angeles | 19 | 6.37 |
Minnesota | 18 | 6.33 |
Tampa Bay | 24 | 6.29 |
Boston | 28 | 6.29 |
Texas | 30 | 6.23 |
Kansas City | 21 | 6.14 |
Baltimore | 25 | 6.00 |
New York | 28 | 5.64 |
Seattle | 20 | 5.10 |
White Sox | 21 | 4.29 |
Man.
These stats are extreme, so you'd figure that regression and normalization are right around the corner. Having the Marlins, Cubs, Mariners, Blue Jays, Astros and Twins on the schedule over the next three weeks should help. So should the return of Gordon Beckham. If the fastball-whipping version of Paul Konerko sticks around, the offense will be able to give Reed a chance to catch his breath.
Then again, the Sox are a year removed from losing a series to the Astros at home, so it's never a given that they'll be able to fatten up on the teams beneath them. If Reed's still involved with three-quarters of White Sox winners by mid-June, well, I hope everybody enjoyed having faces.