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gnix's Offseason Plan

Glad Jim brought this back. One of my favorite features from Sox Machine. Here we go...

Arbitration-eligible

Belisario was bullpen ipecac this season. I had that kind of visceral reaction when I saw him trotting out from the bullpen. That said, my rational brain knows that he suffered from some heinously bad luck, and I’m re-signing him to a minor league deal.

Flowers and Noesi earned their keep, though I’m hoping to go into 2015 with other options, as I wouldn’t bet too much on either of them being that far above replacement level again. Jones and Guerra both get tendered because I never want to see Taylor Thompson in the major leagues again, so I refuse to get rid of any reliever who is even nominally major league quality.

I can’t wait for the Tank to be gone. Somehow I know he’s going to be the next Delmon Young, dream-crusher extraordinaire, though.

Contract options (pick up or buy out):

*Stabs own eye with fork*

Free agents (re-sign or let go?):

I know I said I’m keeping any nominally major league quality reliever, but I don’t think Lindstrom meets that low standard these days.

Free Agent Signings

  • C Russell Martin – 4 years, $60 million – He’s got a lot of miles on him, but he’s also been worth 14.1 fWAR over the last four seasons, is a fantastic pitch-framer, can play 1B (or even 3B) in a pinch, and would have a more than capable backup in TFlo. I’m willing to pay a premium price (and probably give up a 2nd round pick) for a premium player.
  • RHP Koji Uehara – 1 year, $10 million – I want to avoid locking up money in a reliever long-term, so I’m taking a chance that Uehara’s fairly disastrous final six weeks were an aberration, and not the beginning of the end. If the Red Sox make a QO, I’d try for Sergio Romo or K-Rod instead
  • OF Colby Rasmus – 1 year, $7.5 million – I’d prefer Nick Markakis, but Rasmus will come cheaper. Gives you everything Vicideo does, but with plus defense and baserunning.
  • DH Billy Butler – 1 year, $7.5 million – I’m sure there will be a market for Butler, since he finished strong and is having a good postseason. However, I don’t think Dayton Moore has ever been wild about him, and hopefully his lack of secondary skills lowers his price.
  • IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio – 1 year, $3 million – He’s the guy we were hoping Leury Garcia would become, but I don’t think it’s happening.
  • LHP Franklin Morales – 1 year, $2 million – Finally meets his situational lefty destiny. Coop fixes his control. And all is right with the world.
  • RHP Chad Billingsley – 1 year, $1 million – Our Felipe Paulino memorial reclamation project.

Trades

  • Acquire RHP Colin McHugh and RHP Josh Fields from Houston for RHP Francellis Montas, 3B Matt Davidson and RHP Chris Beck

I’m only making one trade, but it’s a fairly big one. The Astros will still be terrible for at least a couple more years, so the Sox get two guys in their late twenties for three prospects with varying upside. McHugh came out of nowhere, but his peripherals are strong enough that even if he regresses, he’s a solid 4th starter. Fields had fantastic K and BB rates this season, but got hit hard by BABIP. With better luck, he’s a wipeout reliever.

It hurts to give up Montas because of his huge upside. But there are injury and role questions, so I feel okay about it. I’d still like to see Davidson get a shot at 3B, but I’d rather see a solid rotation and bullpen. He’s basically the opposite of current Astros 3B Matt Dominguez, who I presume Jeff Luhnow and Co. are tired of watching hit like latter day Gordon Beckham at a corner position. Beck seems like one of those guys who will be around forever without being particularly good, but there’s value in an innings eater for a team like the Astros.

Summary

I’ve assembled a team that can probably contend for the wild card in 2015, without locking up too much money beyond next season. The addition of PreArb rotation and bullpen contributors helps set the Sox up for success in 2016 and beyond, and the Martin/Flowers combination turns a probable weakness into a relative strength.

The big risk (beyond injury) is that the combination of Sanchez/Gillaspie/Semien/Bonifacio can’t get 2B and 3B above replacement level. But I see this like Hahn saw catcher heading into 2014: with no obvious upgrades available, stick with what you have. I’ll take those four players for $5 million over Rickie Weeks and Pablo Sandoval for $20-25 million.

Lineup

  • C Russel Martin - $15 million
  • 1B Jose Abreu - $8.7 million
  • 2B Carlos Sanchez - $500,000
  • 3B Conor Gillaspie - $500,000
  • SS Alexei Ramirez - $10 million
  • LF Avisail Garcia - $500,000
  • CF Adam Eaton - $500,000
  • RF Colby Rasmus - $7.5 million
  • DH Billy Butler - $7.5 million

Bench

  • C Tyler Flowers - $2.1 million
  • IF Marcus Semien - $500,000
  • IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio - $3 million
  • OF Jordan Danks - $500,000

Rotation

  • LHP Chris Sale - $6 million
  • LHP Jose Quintana - $1 million
  • RHP Colin McHugh - $500,000
  • LHP John Danks - $15.75 million (ugh)
  • LHP Carlos Rodon/RHP Chad Billingsley/RHP Erik Johnson - $1 million

Bullpen

  • RHP Koji Uehara - $10 million
  • RHP Josh Fields - $500,000
  • RHP Jake Petricka - $500,000
  • RHP Zach Putnam - $500,000
  • RHP Javy Guerra - $500,000
  • LHP Franklin Morales - $2 million
  • RHP Hector Noesi – $1.9 million

Payroll: $97 million

My completely haphazard guess at record: 85-77

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