FanPost

Soulign1's Offseason Plan

Soulign1's Offseason Plan

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Write "tender" or "non-tender" after each of the following names:

· Ronald Belisario, $3.9M – Non-Tender

· Tyler Flowers, $2.1M - Tender

· Dayan Viciedo, $4.4M – Non-Tender

· Hector Noesi, $1.9M - Tender

· Nate Jones, $600,000 - Tender

· Javy Guerra $1.3M (if he is a Super Two) - Tender

Thought about tendering Belisario, as I think he could be serviceable in a lower-leverage role, but the money seemed too high. I wouldn’t mind him being back on a low-money/minor-league deal. For the sake of my sanity, Viciedo is non-tendered. If somebody wants to offer something for him instead, I’ll take anything.

Contract options (pick up or buy out):

· Felipe Paulino: $4M for 2015 or $250,000 buyout - Buyout

Buy him out, and if Coop still thinks he can fix him sign him to a minor league deal with invite to Spring Training, but with the assumption he’s just AAA fodder at this point.

Free agents (re-sign or let go?):

· Matt Lindstrom: $4M salary in 2014 – I would resign him for 1 yr/1.5M. He’s not awful if he’s healthy, and he wants to be here. Solid if unspectacular contingency plan, especially if you whiff on getting any of your other targets to sign on.

Free agents

Sign OF Nick Markakis (3yrs/45M) – Markakis would be an excellent fit for the OF, either in left or in right with Avi switching over to left. Offensively, he’s a good contact hitter and a much-needed lefty. I think ideally, with his lack of power, he hits second in the lineup. Also, I should mention that this offer is assuming he doesn’t get a QO (which doesn’t seem likely). AAV is a little higher on this deal, but that’s in the hopes he’ll agree to a shorter term. A 3-year deal would also let him seek another multi-year contract (he’s 31 now).

Sign C Jeff Mathis (1yr/1M) – Good defensive catcher to back-up Flowers. Hopefully doesn’t have to play much, not really committing anything here either. You could really sign anyone for this spot (Punch AJ?), I just don’t want Phegley.

Sign Brandon McCarthy (3yrs/36M) – He’s a solid starter with a track record of success. He won’t break the bank, and you pretty much know what you’re getting with some upside.

Sign Pat Neshek (2yrs/6M) and Neal Cotts (1yr/3M) – Add some more reliever options at the back of the pen. This should give you plenty of options that have late-game experience, so you let them work themselves into leverage positions that fit their performance.

Trades

Trade Daniel Webb for Will Middlebrooks: I know I posted this as a comment the other day, but I still like it as a low-risk move. Middlebrooks has fallen out of favor in Boston and is down the depth chart. He’s still young though (only 26), pre-arb so you aren’t committing hardly anything, and at worst he could make a good platoon partner with Gillaspie (his first two years in the majors, he had a slash line of .285/.341./.921 with 11 homers in 200 Abs vs. LHP)

Trade Courtney Hawkins, Tyler Danish and Frank Montas for Carlos Gonzalez: This probably won’t happen, but I think CarGo could be had as the Rockies are probably regretting his large contract because of his injury history. But since one of the Sox strengths is keeping guys healthy, I think this would be a good risk to take. He would be a dynamic lefty hitter who fills a position of need in the outfield, and could spend some time at DH to help keep him healthy. I’m not sure of the return the Rockies would want, but they can always use pitching, right?

Summary

Lineup

1. Adam Eaton CF (600K)

2. Nick Markakis RF (15M)

3. Jose Abreu 1B (8.7M)

4. Carlos Gonzalez LF (16.5M)

5. Avisail Garcia DH (600K)

6. Alexei Ramirez SS (10M)

7. Conor Gillaspie 3B (600K)

8. Tyler Flowers C (2.1M)

9. Marcus Semien 2B (550K)

Bench

Will Middlebrooks (600K) (platoon at 3B)

Jeff Mathis (1M)

Moises Sierra (550K)

Carlos Sanchez (500K) (platoon/split time with Semien)

Rotation

Chris Sale (6M)

Jose Quintana (1M... I think it’s a little more if he’s Super Two? Like 2.5M or something?)

Brandon McCarthy (12M)

John Danks (15.75M)

Carlos Rodon (500K)

Bullpen

Hector Noesi (1.9M)

Javy Guerra (1.3M)

Matt Lindstrom (1.5M)

Jake Petricka (500K)

Zach Putnam (500K)

Pat Neshek (3M)

Neal Cotts (3M)

This all comes in right around 104M for 2015, which seems within reason to me. The free agent signings are relatively short-term, so the risk isn’t quite as big as signing a guy for a longer-term deal. Plus Markakis and McCarthy seem like relatively safe bets at those years/dollars. Obviously CarGo is the biggest splash, and like I mentioned it is a risk. He’s signed through 2017, with 17.5M and 20.5M years left after this upcoming one. But what’s the fun in an exercise like this if you aren’t taking chances? In this scenario, I think you rotate Markakis/Garcia/Gonzalez through the DH spot, unless one of them really seems to take to it. CarGo also allows you to give Eaton some breaks as well to keep him fresh throughout the season. The biggest downside I see to the position players is the lack of a true backup first baseman, but I would think Gillaspie and/or Middlebrooks should be able to hand that without too many issues, or even Markakis or Semien on a limited basis.

As for the pitching, I’ve got Rodon in the rotation for now, but if he’s not ready you could always move Noesi into that spot and plug in another cheap bullpen piece to take that long reliever/spot starter role. Neshek/Cotts should give you a good late-inning tandem depending on who the other team has coming to the plate, and plenty of guys who have at least some late game experience.

Please feel free to let me know where I screwed up/am an idiot, or if you have any questions shoot away and I’ll let you know what I was thinking.

EDIT: Carlos Gonzalez is not a switch hitter. I am hanging my head in shame. Post updated (h/t striker)

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