FanPost

Pete Fitz's Offseason Plan

Tempered Thoughts Edition

Is Avisail Garcia any good? Is Marcus Semien an everyday player? What’s the deal with Tyler Flowers? Is Dayan Viciedo ever going to emerge?

There’s still so many questions with the Sox that I have a very hard seeing them making big splashes this offseason. There’s too much in question to think 2015 is two big signings away from glory, especially with Tigers and Royals in the division. So my plan is largely about getting questions answered and trying to build towards 2016. Let’s not throw 80 million at Pablo Sandoval and sign every mediocre reliever on the market. Deep breaths and Zoloft is what this offseason needs. More subtle moves like the ’07 trading of Carlos Quentin and the ‘05 trading for Scott Podsednik are what the Sox should be aiming for.

Arbitration-eligible:

  • Ronald Belisario, $3.9M. Non-tender.
  • Tyler Flowers, $2.1M Tender.
  • Dayan Viciedo, $4.4M Tender.
  • Hector Noesi, $1.9M Tender.
  • Nate Jones, $600,000. Tender.
  • Javy Guerra $1.3M (if he is a Super Two) Tender.

Explain the toughest calls: Dayan Viciedo still looks to me like a good player. That’s all I’m going off of. Get him out of the outfield. Let him DH against lefties. See what happens. I’m just not ready to quit on him.

The Sox could easily make room for Belisario in the pen in 2015 (not a fat joke). But at 4 million it’s just not worth it.

Noesi is decent enough to hold on to, and, as you’ll see below, could potentially be dangled around to other teams as trade bait.

A healthy Nate Jones is easily worth $600,000. An unhealthy Nate Jones is worth the wait at $600,000.

Javy Guerra… sure, whatever.

Contract options (pick up or buy out):

Explain if you have to: Liked the signing. Didn’t like watching his 11 ERA. No thanks.

Free agents (re-sign or let go?):

Explain if you have to: Not worth it.

Free agents

Kyle Kendrick, 1 year, 8 million. Club option 2016.

Kendrick has been essentially a 1.0 WAR player with the Phillies his whole career and he’s due for a change of scenery. He throws a cutter, but he doesn’t throw a Coop Cutter. So that makes him a signing the Sox might do. He would give the Sox a solid righty that isn’t Hector Noesi.

Chase Headley, 4 years, 48 million.

Nice glove and a bat that can add versatility to the lineup. He’s basically Joe Crede, except with one stellar outlier season. Gillaspie can’t play third and Matt Davidson is no where near ready. Headley fits the Sox needs perfectly.

Franklin Morales, 1 year, 2 million.

Lefty for the pen. If he can consistently throw strikes, his stuff is good enough to get guys out and keep us from witnessing Charlie Leesman.

Trades

No. 1. Acquire OF/1B Kyle Parker from Colorado for Hector Noesi, Tyler Danish.

Kyle Parker has potential to be Josh Fields all over again – a college quarterback with good power numbers in the minors who never pans out. But I like this guy. Rockies are desperate for pitching right now so Noesi would be appealing and Danish would fit the type of pitcher that might work in Colorado. This is similar to the Santiago for Eaton swap of last year. Trade a not-very-good pitcher at his ceiling for a solid, major league ready player within an organization with depth at his position. Parker is good athlete with 30 home run potential playing at U.S. Cellular. Pair him with Eaton and Garcia in the outfield and that’s a fun young group to watch.

No. 2. Acquire P Zach Lee, P Onelki Garcia from Los Angeles Dodgers for Alexei Ramirez.

Alexei Ramirez is a good player. But he’s not a great player. Flipping him to the Dodgers for two talented young pitchers (4th and 8th ranked prospects), one with middle rotation stuff (nasty changeup) and one a potential dominant lefty reliever, is a move that makes sense in a number of ways. Alexei will be 33 next season, which isn’t ancient but his best years are behind him. The Dodgers need a shortstop (Hanley Ramirez will move to third if they keep him and this allows Corey Seager more time to develop) and probably wouldn’t mind getting another Cuban to help corral Puig. This trade gives room for Carlos Sanchez and Semien (Rookie of the Year vote getter!) to play together. That scares the shit out of me to have that middle infield but that’s what a rebuild is – let those young guys play. And if this fails horribly, Tim Anderson will be there in 2016… which is also really scary.

Summary

Prepare for 2016. Keep Connor Gillaspie and Dayan Viciedo to platoon at DH. Give young guys a chance in middle infield. Continue to build a young core of everyday players, strengthen bullpen and pitching depth. No pressure to force Rodon into majors. Trading Danks is not realistic.

This plan shores up money to extend Garcia, Eaton, and (potentially) Parker, while going at free agency next winter (Justin Upton! or Jason Heyward!) and taking advantage of the favorable contracts for Abreu, Sale, and Quintana.

2015 Lineup

C. Tyler Flowers

1B. Jose Abreu

2B. Marcus Semien/Micah Johnson

SS. Carlos Sanchez/Marcus Semien

3B. Chase Headley

LF. Kyle Parker

CF. Adam Eaton

RF. Avisail Garcia

DH. Conor Cillaspie/Dayan Viciedo

Bench: Dayan Viciedo, Jordan Danks, Micah Johnson, Josh Phegley.

Rotation

Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Kyle Kendricks, John Danks, Zach Lee

Bullpen

Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Javy Guerra, Onelkie Garcia, Franklin Morales, Maikel Cleto, Chris Bassitt

Payroll: 70 Million

Record: Another Top Ten Draft Pick!

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