FanPost

Mogster22"s Offseason Plan

Mogster22's Offseason Plan
Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Write "tender" or "non-tender" after each of the following names:
Ronald Belisario, $3.9M Non-Tender
Tyler Flowers, $2.1M Tender
• Dayan Viciedo, $4.4M Tender
• Hector Noesi, $1.9M Tender
Nate Jones, $600,000. Tender
Javy Guerra $1.3M (if he is a Super Two) Tender

Explain the toughest calls:

The toughest calls for me were tendering contracts to Dayan Viciedo and Javy Guerra. A lot has been made about Belisario’s "bad luck," but at the end of the day almost $4 million for a guy who doesn’t have the high K/9 (7.3 career) and just gives up to many baserunners (bb/9 = 3.3 and h/9 = 8.2) isn’t worth it. Invest a little extra and you can get a much more solid option in the high leverage relief pitcher department. Viciedo is getting a contract because 20-25 hr power doesn’t grow on trees nowadays, so I believe there will be a trade matchup for him or at the very least he could be a suitable DH/Backup Corner OF/Backup 1B option.

Contract options (pick up or buy out):

Felipe Paulino: $4M for 2015 or $250,000 buyout

o $250,000 buyout – These types of gambles are a good practice for teams to get into. Sometimes you get the Paulino outcome and sometime you get Scott Kazmir. You have to take a chance on low cost/potential high upside deals hoping you hit. In this case we can be pretty sure what we will get from Paulino and it’s not worth $4 million.
Explain if you have to:

Free agents (re-sign or let go?):

Matt Lindstrom: $4M salary in 2014

o Re-sign only if he is willing to come back on an incentive laden contract starting off 1yr/$1 million with incentives based on games finished pushing it closer to $4.5 million. I ultimately don’t think he will go this route and I am fine with moving on from him.
Free agents

I’m not a big fan of dipping into this year’s or any year’s free agency class, so the majority of my deals are going to be lower level, shorter term, bounce back type of deals.

No. 1. Pablo Sandoval (five years, $80M).
I have been really surprised with the amount of people that are on the Chase Headley bandwagon. Pablo Sandoval is a guy in the world series for the third time (one WS MVP award) and he isn’t getting any attention as a free agent. All the guy has done in this league is hit, hit, and hit some more. He is three years younger than Headley (28 years old) and has a far superior offensive track record. He is a switch hitter who I see hitting about 20-25 hrs in the cell while batting around .280…not bad for our hot corner. The last thing we want is another 3b with back troubles like Headley (see Joe Crede, Brent Morel, etc. for how that works out). With this contract it put him right around what Aramis Ramirez is making for a little less offense potentially and better defense than what they are getting in Milwaukee. Finally with this deal you are signing him through the prime years of his career 28-32 yrs old. If Matt Davidson is able to bounce back then you move Sandoval to DH and he is a capable fill in at both infield corner positions.

No. 2. Luke Gregerson (three years, $18M)
When looking at relief pitchers from one year to the next there is a great deal of volatility, but the White Sox don’t have a lot of guys they can go to the well and put in the bullpen next year…we pretty much saw all the options last year. Gregerson doesn’t work with a booming fastball, but he has been successful in his stops to both the NL West and AL West while showing the ability to be an 8th or 9th inning guy. A three year commitment to lock down our last two innings will be a welcome addition.

No. 3. Zach Duke (two years, $7M)
We need to add at least one left handed arm and I’m not going to pay the king’s ransom that Miller is going to want. Zach Duke has tweaked his delivery since leaving Washington and it has resulted in a left handed pitcher that can get the K+ per inning and not be relegated to LOOGY duties.

No. 4. Andrew Bailey (one year, $1M with incentives pushing it up to $5M and a Team Option for 2016 at $6M or $500K buyout)
When Andrew Bailey is healthy he is one of the top closers in the game no question about it. This contract will help him regain his value while at the same time protecting the White Sox from having anything more than a lottery ticket. As with the next person on this list having the magician known as Herm Schneider is a nice benefit to offer the recovering former rookie of the year. Recent reports said that he should be ready to go come spring training and even if he never pitches it will still cost less than Paulino.

No. 5. Brett Anderson (one year, $6M with an option for 2016 that is triggered if he spends more than half the season on the DL for $3M)
The next of my free agent targets is getting the "Josh Johnson" deal. Similar to what Johnson signed with the Padres last year the contract will have a conditional option that is activated for the team in the event he spends half the season or more on the DL. What I think is ideal is if we could convince Anderson to be a relief pitcher taking the inning stress he receives to a min. and perhaps helping avoid the injury bug along with the help of Herm. When healthy he has the physical tools to be a solid top of the rotation starter.

No. 6. Adam LaRoche (one year, $10M with a vesting option for 2016 that is triggered at 550 PA in 2015 and becomes player option for $10M)
The last free agent target is going to be filling the DH/Backup 1B criteria meaning he is here to hit and balance the lineup. I have been able to balance the lineup left/right pretty well, but LaRoche fits right into the middle. It was only two years ago that he won a gold glove at first, so he is more than capable of filling in for Abreu on off days in the field. He will bring a .250-.270 avg with at least 20+ hrs in the cell. The contract isn’t an albatross by any means and it still keep me under the $110M ceiling on the payroll if I needed to maneuver later in the year.

Trades

No. 1. Acquire Jayson Werth and $30 million from Washington for John Danks, Carlos Sanchez, Zach Thompson, and Andrew Mitchell.
I want someone who I can plug into the 2 hole in the lineup and provide .290 avg with 15-25 hr potential and won’t be a burden on the basepaths/defense. Enter Jayson Werth who minus one year in Washington has been a consistent hitting threat that holds his own on the basepaths (about 10 a year with a very good percentage) and at least an avg RF. He is a smart ballplayer, which will team up well with Eaton to provide Kung Fu Panda and Abreu plenty of RBI opportunities. The money will help offset the additional year and AAV he has on Danks. Danks should do well in the NL and the Nationals could use some rotation certaintity with Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Fister coming up on FA. Along with Danks they get a soft hitting 2B/UTIL at best, which Semien and or Micah can replace at the very least. They also receive a few lottery/long term arms which I believe ultimately won’t come back to bite us. Mitchell has great stuff, but no one including him knows where it’s going. Thompson is a recent draftee out of High School that held his own in rookie ball, but doesn’t have the same knockout stuff that Spencer Adams and Danish have. If given the opportunity I would like to avoid having him in the deal if I can get away with the other three.

No. 2. Acquire Mark Buehrle and $9 million from Toronto for Dayan Viciedo and Connor Gillaspie
I would be lying if I didn’t say the fan in me is wanting this more than the Fake GM, but of all the possible fits I kept coming back to this one. Yes this could very well mean that by June I have an all left handed rotation, but honestly I am thinking by then Anderson is in the bullpen and Noesi/Erik Johnson (hoping for a turnaround) is the 5th spot behind Rodon. Buehrle will continue to be Buehrle and with the money we are getting from he is much more in par with his value on the field and not the ridiculous back loaded Miami deal. Meanwhile Toronto gets Viceido do help fill the hole Melky and or Rasmus will leave (Viciedo could hit 30 hrs in Toronto given enough playing time). Conor Gillaspie is now of little use with the Sandoval signing, but he would be a welcomed left handed bat and upgrade to Danny Valencia in Toronto.

Summary

Position Players
C – Tyler Flowers $2.1M
1B – Jose Abreu $8.667M
2B – Marcus Semien $500K
SS – Alexi Ramirez $10M
3B – Pablo Sandoval $16M
LF – Avisail Garcia $500K
CF – Adam Eaton $500K
RF – Jayson Werth $20M (Of the $30M from Washington only $10 applied to 2015)
DH – Adam LaRoche $10M
Bench – Kevan Smith/Adrian Nieto/Josh Phegley (Spring training battle) $500K
Bench – Leury Garcia/Micah Johnson $500K
Bench – Jordan Danks $500K
Bench – Andy Wilkins/Matt Davidson/Jared Mitchell $500K (One makes it out of Spring Training)

Pitchers
SP – Chris Sale $6M
SP – Jose Quintana $3.4M
SP – Mark Buehrle $19M ($9M paid from Blue Jays)
SP – Brett Anderson $6M
SP – Noesi $1.9M (Until June when Carlos Rodon is called up)
RP – Jacob Petricka $500K
RP – Daniel Webb $500K
RP – Luke Gregerson $6M
RP – Zach Duke $3.5M
RP – Andrew Bailey $1M
RP – Eric Surkamp $500 K
RP – Zach Putnam/Javy Guerra $1.3M

Total Payroll = $106.967 (Including $4.5M for Keppinger, $250K for Downs, $600K for Jones, $500K for Putnam, and $250 for Paulino)

Lineup
1.) Adam Eaton CF
2.) Jayson Werth RF
3.) Jose Abreu 1B
4.) Pablo Sandoval 3B
5.) Avisail Garcia LF
6.) Adam LaRoche DH
7.) Alexi Ramirez
8.) Tyler Flower C
9.) Marcus Semien 2B
Rotation
1.) Chris Sale
2.) Jose Quintana
3.) Mark Buehrle
4.) Brett Anderson
5.) Hector Noesi/Carlos Rodon
Bullpen (Lowest Leverage to Highest/Closer Level)
1.) Eric Surkamp
2.) Daniel Webb
3.) Zach Putnam/Javy Guerra
4.) Jacob Petricka
5.) Zach Duke
6.) Andrew Bailey
7.) Luke Gregerson

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