FanPost

larry's Offseason Plan

Fastball! You bet your ass I make larry's team. - Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Arbitration-eligible:

Tender all.

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Pick up. $9M seems like a pretty fair price if he were on the open market. The White Sox will need to make a decision pretty quickly after the end of the World Series and I don't think they can afford to open another hole that would absolutely need to be filled, most likely from outside the organization. He can be moved right or left on the infield, and probably traded, if they do get another shortstop later in the offseason and/or don't follow this plan to a T.

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go, or qualifying offer?):

Albers is a solid reliever and I'd like to have him on the team. However, he'll get a few good offers elsewhere and the White Sox need to spend that money elsewhere.

I'd actually put a little effort into retaining Soto. I don't think he'll get an offer that gives him a starting job, except for maybe a horseshit team. His recent history simply doesn't suggest a capacity to do it. If I were him, I'd try to extend my earning years by going with back-up roles anyway, which probably would result in greater salary earnings long-term and ensure the 10 years for the fully vested pension. It really comes down to dollars for the White Sox and they may not be there for him in my plan.

Free agents:

No. 1: Mark Buehrle (one year, $6.5M). This one is so obviously going to happen that it would be malpractice not to contemplate in an offseason plan. Sure, there's the issue of health and whether he actually wants to play another year, but those are unknowable right now. I'm going to assume that he's ready and able to play in 2016 and, in that case, I doubt the White Sox would pass on him. I've seen at least one plan that had him getting like $11M or something but I don't think it would take anywhere near that to get him back with the White Sox. If he's worried at all about health, he knows how good the training staff is. If he's worried about a major league contract, he'd have it in Chicago. If he's worried about not having a starting spot, he'd have one handed to him. And I think he'd be so very happy to end his career in Chicago that he'd defer money to help the White Sox put a competitive team on the field. It could be a straight deferral and/or a buyout of an option or a vesting option. However structured, I think he could be had for the Konerko price of $1.5M this year plus incentives for games started/innings pitched. If you think $6.5M guaranteed is light, I'd just say increase it and defer that money because I think he'd go for it. Oh, and give him a full no-trade clause

No. 2 Doug Fister (one year, $5M): Here's a guy who should've taken that multi-year contract. He's lost velocity, particularly the past couple years, and most of it won't be coming back. He needs Don Cooper to put him on the Freddy Garcia junkballer program. It's certainly risky to rely on Fister as a starter (which they'd have to do at least early in the season) but the White Sox aren't going to put together a roster that doesn't have risk in a few spots and I'd rather put it in the hands of someone (Coop) in whom I have confidence. He may not even get a major league contract and Chicago will be an attractive option to get a roster spot.

No. 3 Alex Avila (one year, $2.5M): Those creaky knees and multiple concussions aren't going to lure anyone into giving him a starting spot or starter money. Another guy for whom I'm not even sure if it would take a major league contract to sign him. What the White Sox would be getting in Avila is a guy who has been a good defender and hits left-handed. He probably shouldn't ever face a lefty. This is obviously a gamble on health (wassup, Herm?). I think his framing and offense were both hurt by his bad knee and I'm betting on a decent rebound.

No. 4 Mike Napoli (one year, $7M): I think what Napoli has done over the last season and a half shows what he's good for now: part-timer against lefties. He fits a lot of needs the White Sox have had for awhile, most notably a big right-handed dinger bat off the bench. He can be used in a DH platoon as well as to counteract lefty relievers late(r) in games. While no longer an above average defender at first base, he's still probably around average, so you'd be comfortable having him come in later in games at first base if Jose Abreu or Adam LaRoche are removed from the game (obvious pinch runner candidates). The flexibility Tyler Saladino and Trayce Thompson offer on defense mean you'd be comfortable hitting him at anytime for anyone, even if only as a pinch hitter who doesn't stay in the game. I think his contract could be back-loaded via a vesting option / team option with buyout.

Trades

No. 1 Frankie Montas, Erik Johnson, Avisail Garcia, Carlos Sanchez, Micker Adolfo and John Danks for Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce. So, yeah, this probably requires some unpacking.

This is pretty much two trades mashed into one. One part is essentially John Danks for Jay Bruce. The Reds should've taken that rumored offer at the trade deadline from the Mets because Bruce's value plummeted to nothing after that. Despite his slightly higher contract, Danks is a slightly more valuable player (i.e., less negative value), so some small part of Frazier is probably being "paid" here but it's more of a rounding error. As mentioned above, the White Sox need some upside plays and this is one place they can try. Thompson can start against lefties and come in as a defensive replacement, pinch runner or pinch hitter late(r) in games Bruce starts. He bring dingers, which the White Sox sorely need. And the White Sox haven't had much experience with acquired players arriving as offensive horseshit so maybe rebound? If it doesn't work, you have Thompson. As for Danks, he's maybe a 1 WAR player. What he provides is somethings the Reds will need next season with a young rotation: starts and innings.

The other part is everyone else for two years of Frazier, a 4 WAR player. It's a pretty dear price to pay but it's what would be required and it ticks off a lot of boxes for the Reds. They get a young, cost-controlled, major league ready starter in Johnson. They get an heir to Aroldis Chapman in Montas (and, obviously, there's still the (dwindling) starter potential, too). They get a change of scenery guy in Garcia who replaces Bruce in right or slots into left (I pretty much valued Garcia at 0 in this deal). They get a cheap, versatile utility player in Sanchez who could be a stopgap at a couple positions (say, if Brandon Phillips is traded). And they get a long-term lottery ticket in Adolfo. What Frazier provides to the White Sox is axiomatic. I'd explore a long-term deal with him but, as he's already under contract for 2016, that wouldn't be an offseason priority.

I'd be fine severing the Danks-Bruce piece (which might require a slight rejiggering of the other players in the deal). The White Sox would keep a reliable if low upside starter and Thompson would get the keys to right. I prefer the upside potential and dingers in Bruce and, if that fails, I still have Thompson.

No. 2 Micah Johnson, Adam Engel and Jordan Guerrero for Neil Walker. The Pirates are almost certainly going to move Walker. There isn't a great deal of surplus value for one year of a 2.5 WAR player who will likely make almost $11M in arbitration, even if one includes the possibility of the QO comp pick. Everyone knows I'm no fan of Johnson, and he certainly doesn't have a great reputation on SSS, but he's still a guy with a lot of perceived potential value (see prospect rankings for proof) and, heck, maybe those other people are actually right about him. Engel and Guerrero are lower level pieces of the very lottery ticketish variety. Obviously, the White Sox get a second baseman in Walker who is a switch-hitter. I'd be fine offering him an extension to avoid arbitration and buy out a couple free agent years. He's slated to be a 31-year-old free agent so, just spit-balling here, 3/$42M may be palatable as offering short-term security while giving him a shot at another multi-year deal at age 33. I'd expect the structure to be something like $10/15/17M.

Summary

I'm probably slightly above the $135M limit (depending upon how creative one gets with the accounting) but, as I've stated many times, I believe the White Sox have more payroll room than that. And the way I've structured this roster, I think it would appeal to the Renisdorf's sensibilities. There's still a ton of money (about $50M) coming off the books for 2017 with essentially only Frazier's future salary added for certain (and that's only for one additional year) along with some deferrals. And if things go poorly again in 2016, short-term(ish) pieces like Walker, Napoli, Ramirez, Bruce, LaRoche, Fister, Avila, Flowers and (maybe) Buehrle could conceivably be moved off the books earlier.

The farm has been stripped down but trading them is one of the things you do with them when you have an actual farm system. Preserved is Tim Anderson, shortstop of the future (or at least up the middle player of the future) and top prospect. Also retained is Carson Fulmer, mid-rotation starter of the future (or at least good reliever of the future). I consider Trey Michalczewski another important piece in the medium-term future of the organization and he's also still in place. And there's way more legitimately interesting/good prospects in the low minors (thanks, Marco!).

The starting pitching is...shaky after the Big Three. Depending upon the health of Chris Beck, it could be very shaky with Scott Carroll the only under contract piece you might trust with starts and, well, we know how that goes. I'd expect, though, that the White Sox will again be a particularly attractive destination for NRI pitchers. And churches across the South Side will be praying for the speedy development of some pitchers who might be ready by June.

On the other hand, I've tried to build in some back-up plans into the potential trouble spots on the position player side. If LaRoche fulfills the expectations of many on this site, Napoli is there and there's lefties like Melky Cabrera or Bruce who could take on some of those plate appearances. If Bruce continues to suck (or perhaps he or Cabrera plays more DH), Thompson is there and can play all the outfield positions. Thompson's analogue on the infield, Saladino, is average to really good at the three important infield spots. Frazier doesn't need a defensive caddy but Walker is a below average defender and may need the occasional late-inning replacement. I think Alexei would really, really, really benefit from more days off and Saladino can provide that for him, as well as the other two. Anderson lurks. Avila is a credible back-up and is a (comparatively) strong offensive option against right-handers.

The offense is better. The defense is better. The bullpen is essentially the same. The starting pitching is weaker. I hope the in-game management will be better. I'll wait for the official tally but I have this team at close to 40 WAR, which puts their base case at wild card contender. With some good luck, midseason trade(s) and such, reasonable upside is division contender. Even with some bad luck and such, reasonable downside would still have them interesting into the late summer.

Approximate lineup with platoon friends

Eaton - CF

Frazier - 3B

Walker -2B

Abreu - 1B

LaRoche/Napoli - DH

Bruce/Thompson - RF

Cabrera - LF

Ramirez - SS

Flowers - C

Bench

Saladino

Avila

Rotation

Sale

Quintana

Rodon

Buehrle

Fister

Bullpen

Robertson

Jones

Duke

Putnam

Jennings

Petricka

Carroll

Fire away.

SouthSideSox is a community-driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.