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We're officially a month away from the MLB draft, but good luck trying to hone in on truly possible picks for the White Sox at No. 8, because nobody seems to have much of an idea of who's going to Arizona with the first overall selection.
While there is a consensus top prospect -- prep shortstop Brendan Rogers -- he isn't considered a golden ticket, so Kiley McDaniel says the Diamondbacks seem to be angling for a below-slot player at the start.
The industry speculation is that the D’Backs’ preference is [Garrett] Whitley over [Tyler] Stephenson as cut-rate options at #1 overall and Georgia prep CF Daz Cameron (son of Mike Cameron) is also rumored to be in the mix. Watson went to Cameron’s game yesterday instead of Stephenson, but the heavy hitters for Arizona have seen all three players already. At this point, I’d call the three high school players the co-favorites to go #1 overall until more information comes in, with [Dillon] Tate and Vanderbilt SS Dansby Swanson both longshots. It sounds like Arizona wants a hitter, but it’s clear to the industry that Arizona doesn’t know what they’re going to do yet.
The math behind this preference means the that D’Backs could have a financial hammer with their later picks. The pool value for the top pick is about $8 million and the D’Backs full pool is $13.6 million. [Brendan] Rodgers would likely cost at least $6 million at 1-1 and Tate would probably be just below that, but since Whitley and Stephenson don’t have a clear home in the top 7 picks if Arizona passes, they may accept a deal of about $3.5 million. This would shave about $4.5 million off the top pick that could be spent on multiple other picks. Cameron has more interest in the top 10 and would probably ask for a price between Stephenson/Whitley and Tate.
While there was a little mystery at the top of last year's draft, there was a defined pitching troika of Brady Aiken, Tyler Kolek and Carlos Rodon. But in the two paragraphs above, McDaniel lists six names, most of whom would sign for below the first-pick slot value of $8,616,900.
For the White Sox, it shouldn't be as complicated. They lost their second- and third-round picks as compensation for signing protected free agents David Robertson and Melky Cabrera, so they'll have to make their first pick count. The slot value for the eight pick is $3,470,600, which is 65 percent of their overall pool ($5,347,500).
We'll be previewing and profiling potential White Sox targets over the next month, but here's a quick rundown of the top 15 draft prospects from the most noteworthy outlets (click on the headers for more details).
Baseball America |
Keith Law |
MLB.com | FanGraphs | |
1 |
Brendan Rogers SS, HS (Fla). |
Brendan Rogers SS, HS (Fla). |
Brendan Rogers SS, HS (Fla). |
Brendan Rogers SS, HS (Fla). |
2 |
Dansby Swanson SS, Vanderbilt |
Kevin Newman SS, Arizona |
Dillon Tate RHP, UCSB |
Dillon Tate RHP, UCSB |
3 |
Dillon Tate RHP, UCSB |
Dansby Swanson SS, Vanderbilt |
Dansby Swanson SS, Vanderbilt |
Dansby Swanson SS, Vanderbilt |
4 |
Kyle Funkhouser RHP, Louisville |
Dillon Tate RHP, UCSB |
Kyle Funkhouser RHP, Louisville |
Alex Bregman SS, LSU |
5 |
Alex Bregman SS, LSU |
Kolby Allard LHP, HS (Calif.) |
Alex Bregman SS, LSU |
Kyle Funkhouser RHP, Louisville |
6 |
Daz Cameron OF, HS (Ga.) |
Alex Bregman SS, LSU |
Mike Nikorak RHP, HS (Pa.) |
Carson Fulmer RHP, Vanderbilt |
7 |
Carson Fulmer RHP, Vanderbilt |
Ian Happ OF, Cincinnati |
Carson Fulmer RHP, Vanderbilt |
Kyle Tucker OF, HS (Fla.) |
8 |
Garrett Whitley OF, HS (N.Y.) |
Garrett Whitley OF, HS (N.Y.) |
Kyle Tucker OF, HS (Fla.) |
Kevin Newman SS, Arizona |
9 |
Mike Nikorak RHP, HS (Pa.) |
Walker Buehler RHP, Vanderbilt |
Walker Buehler RHP, Vanderbilt |
Ian Happ OF, Cincinnati |
10 |
Kyle Tucker OF, HS (Fla.) |
Kyle Tucker OF, HS (Fla.) |
Jon Harris RHP, Missouri St. |
Tyler Jay LHP, Illinois |
11 |
Nick Plummer OF, HS (Mich.) |
Kyle Funkhouser RHP, Louisville |
Nick Plummer OF, HS (Mich.) |
Mike Nikorak RHP, HS (Pa.) |
12 |
Trenton Clark OS, HS (Tex.) |
Mike Nikorak RHP, HS (Pa.) |
Daz Cameron OF, HS (Ga.) |
Kolby Allard LHP, HS (Calif.) |
13 |
Walker Buehler RHP, Vanderbilt |
Daz Cameron OF, HS (Ga.) |
Trenton Clark OS, HS (Tex.) |
Cody Ponce RHP, Cal Poly Pomona |
14 |
Ashe Russell RHP, HS (Ind.) |
Trenton Clark OS, HS (Tex.) |
Ian Happ OF, Cincinnati |
Walker Buehler RHP, Vanderbilt |
15 |
Kolby Allard LHP, HS (Calif.) |
Nick Plummer OF, HS (Mich.) |
Ashe Russell RHP, HS (Ind.) |
Nate Kirby LHP, Virginia |
Baseball America will be releasing a new mock draft today, and since we're officially at the one-month point, I imagine it won't be the only one.