FanPost

Joey Doughnuts' Offseason plan 2016

Joey Doughnuts' Offseason Plan:

AJ Pollock

ALL-IN 2.0

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Write "tender" or "non-tender" after each of the following names. Two notes: 1) You can trade before or after tendering a contract, and 2) we’ll just assume Jose Abreu is in the fold for roughly $11 million regardless of whether he chooses the arb route.

  • Todd Frazier, $13.5M - TENDER
  • Brett Lawrie, $5.1M - Non-Tender
  • Avisail Garcia, $3.5M - Non-Tender
  • Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M - TENDER
  • Dan Jennings, $1.2M - TENDER
  • J.B. Shuck, $1M - Non-Tender
  • Jake Petricka, $900K - TENDER
  • Zach Putnam, $900K - TENDER
  • Daniel Webb, $600K - Non-Tender

I really struggled with the idea of tender Lawrie or not. Thought maybe I could use the $5M elsewhere, and although I initially decided to tender him, I put together a trade below that changed my mind.

Shuck, Avi, and Webb can all go fly a kite. I think that's an expression. I don't get why it's one, but I'm invoking it here and there is nothing you can do about it.

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

  • Matt Albers: $3M for 2017 or a $250,000 buyout - BUYOUT
And I'm buying it out "like a f**king cat"


Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

  • Austin Jackson: - BYE FELICIA
  • Alex Avila: - Resign to 1 yr/$3M deal
  • Justin Morneau: - Would love to keep him, but he will want a team like the Red Sox.

Elaborate if needed:

Free agents

2B Neil Walker - 3 years/$48M ($14M, $16M, $18M)

  • Walker is a pleasantly consistent. Over the past 6 seasons, he's never been below a 2.4 WAR. Last year he was 3.7 and was 3.6 in 2014. He's a 20+ HR bat, he walks a bit, doesn't strike out much, is a switch hitter, and seems to grade out as an average fielder at 2B. There is question as to whether or not he will be offered a QO or not, and even though I really hope he isn't, with a market so thin, I feel like he will be. So losing a 1st RD pick really sucks, but we are going All-In, remember?!?!? So...Wheeeee! I think Walker will be a 3-WAR player in 2017.

C Wilson Ramos - 1 year/$8M

  • I realize this seems a bit weird. Hear me out. So Ramos just had knee surgery in mid-October. His recovery time is 6-8 months. So including a rehab stint, you are talking something like mid-May to late-June until he is back in action. For this reason, I don't think the Nationals extend him a Qualifying Offer of $17.6M, because, by all rights, he would be insane to reject that given his injury. And I don't see him signing a multi-year deal because he will want to prove his health, not sign a 3 or 4-year deal at a discounted rate. Avila and Narvaez hold it down until he returns, then they fight to the death for the backup role, assuming Avila is still alive in the first place. I give him a 1.5 WAR catcher in the 80 games he should give us thanks to his good power, good contact skills, and above-average defense (average pitch framer, but far better than Navarro).

1B/OF Steve Pearce - 1 year/$6M

  • Hey, look, a theme! Another late-season injured player! Pearce had forearm surgery in September, but should be back by January or February. He is a lefty-killer and is a 20-25 HR bat in a full year. It was only 2 years ago that he was a 4.9 fWAR player with Baltimore in only 102 games. He mashes taters, and he takes walks, he doesn't strike out much, and 2 of the last 3 seasons he has hit .288+. He's a good DH option for this team, but his injury and age will keep his price low. I think he's a 2.5 WAR player in a full year.

RHP Greg Holland - 1 year/$4M, team option $7M for 2018, $2M buyout

  • You had to see this coming by now. Dude was injured in 2016, he gets a spot on this team. Guy was a monster for a few years and has a massive fastball. Gets essentially $6M guaranteed with the Sox having an option of $7M in a second season if he proves healthy and valuable. Pairing him with Nate Jones would give us two nasty fireballing righties at the back of the pen. Oh yeah, and Zack Burdi is on his way. Yikes.

LHP Boone Logan - 2 years/$9M

  • With Jones and Holland in the pen, the Sox need to pair something with Jennings to get out lefties, and our old friend Boone is death on lefties. In 2016, lefties batted .139 with a .215 wOBA. Pair that with an 11.49 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 0.29 HR/9, and a 2.06 FIP and you got yourself a lefty that's hotter'than'a goat's butt in a pepper patch! (Boone sounds southern AF, so I naturally assume redneck lingo)

Trades

P Carson Fulmer, P Spencer Adams, OF Adam Engel, P Jordan Guerrero to the Arizona Diamondbacks for CF A.J. Pollock

  • With Mike Hazen taking over for the Dbacks after their horribly failed attempt to "go All-in" in 2016, I feel like Hazen will want to just go young and load up on talent. I have a feeling everyone outside of Goldschmidt may be available, and Pollock isn't actually young anymore. He will be 29 in December, and if the Dbacks do decide the rebuild, he will reach free agency before that plan is finished. Pollock will make $6.75M in 2017 and then will be arb-eligible in 2018 before becoming a FA in 2019. In 2015 he was a 6.5 WAR player and fills a huge void this team has in CF, where Pollock is tremendous (14 DRS in 2015, 3 DRS in only 14 games in 2016). He's a .300+ hitter with 20 HR pop and gold-glove defense in CF, while even swiping 39 bags in his last healthy year. The rub is that he missed almost all of 2016 with a fractured elbow. But if he's healthy in 2016, he's an all-star CF easily. Let's give him a 4.5 WAR, and that would be a pretty large regression honestly.

  • The cost to acquire him will be steep, which is why I have included 2 of our top pitching prospects, and a breakout candidate in Guerrero. Hopefully the revelation of Alec Hansen has made this an easier pill to swallow. The Dbacks have always coveted pitching, and even with a new GM, I choose to believe they still will. Fulmer and Adams probably becomes their top 2 pitching prospects, assuming Shipley has fully graduated to the majors. Adam Engel gives them a highly intriguing speedy CF and Guerrero is another intriguing arm that is trending up. The Dbacks and Sox have made a lot of trades over the years and I think Hazen will look to put his own stamp on the new club, that is, if LaRussa lets him.

CL David Robertson and $5M to the San Francisco Giants for 2B Kelby Tomlinson and P Ray Black

  • This one is a little off-the-wall, and it may be too much in contracts to move, but plain and simple, the Giants need relievers badly. Robertson wasn't great, but he was certainly better than anything the Giants have and unless they are willing to hand a huge contract to either Jansen or Chapman, they will have to get a closer via trade. Robertson has 1 year left on his deal at $13M, Giants pay $8M of that.

  • Kelby Tomlinson intrigues me. He's only played 106 games over the past 2 years with the Giants, but has been worth 1.9 WAR, batting .299 with a .362 OBP. He only struck out 15% of the time last season and scouts say he's a plus runner with a very accurate arm at 2B, is athletic enough to play the position, and has good instincts with quick hands on defense. I like him a lot as a backup 2B.

  • Ray Black is an absolute flamethrowing minor league reliever with no idea for the strikezone. He has a career minor league K/9 of....wait for it....18! But his walk-rate was merely REDUCED to about 9 last season. Yikes. But he's one of those arms that just needs to be harnessed and maybe the velocity dialed down a bit. Sox have a history with those arms. Totally worth a flier. Oh, I should mention Black has hit 104 MPH in the minors....uh...yeah.

Summary

I feel like these moves keep our pitching in tact, improve our bullpen, greatly improve our offense, and improve our outfield defense tremendously. Obviously a lot of those FA are injury risks, but I feel like rolling the dice on 1 year deals is fine because if they don't work out, the only player to be "stuck" with would be Walker, who should be easily moveable due to hisconsistency. Would have liked to move James Shields, but I don't see any takers.

ROTATION:

  1. L Chris Sale
  2. L Jose Quintana
  3. R Miguel Gonzalez
  4. L Carlos Rodon
  5. R James Shields
BULLPEN:

  1. CL Nate Jones
  2. SU Greg Holland
  3. L Boone Logan
  4. L Dan Jennings
  5. R Zack Putnam
  6. R Zack Burdi
  7. R Jake Petricka
LINEUP:
  1. RF Adam Eaton (L)
  2. CF A.J. Pollock (R)
  3. LF Melky Cabrera (S)
  4. 1B Jose Abreu (R)
  5. 3B Todd Frazier (R)
  6. 2B Neil Walker (S)
  7. C Wilson Ramos (R)
  8. DH Steven Pearce (R)
  9. SS Tim Anderson (R)
BENCH:
  1. IF Tyler Saladino (R)
  2. IF Kolby Tomlinson (R)
  3. OF Charlie Tilson (L)
  4. C Alex Avila (L)


I'll be honest, I've spent about 3 hours on this and don't have the strength at nearly 3-AM to figure out how much money I've spent. Obviously I've increased the payroll. Adding probably $30M or so, but I know I've trimmed some fat with Robertson ($8M) and Lawrie/Avi (another $8.5M). Hopefully I come in around the $130M I was budgeted as. If not.....Wheeee!

I'll edit this tomorrow night with my win estimates based on added WAR. I would have to assume I've added around 8-10 wins to this team. Just Pollock and Walker alone should be close to that mark.

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