FanPost

Chet Lemonhead’s Offseason Plan

Hello, and welcome to a plan that satisfies both the need for the White Sox to import good players for a playoff run while simultaneously jettisoning unneeded parts and/or future anger management class students.

Hey Chet, isn't that the normal White Sox offseason plan, dating to Ken Williams' first GM offseason and first dates with longtime loves Carl Everett and Roberto Alomar? Sure. But the difference here is it's going to be done right. No more spending like we're using Venezuelan bolívars while the rest of the majors (and some minors) spend with trusty dollars, or euros, or whatever's safest to use on a planet where Donald Trump is just one good Wiki Leak from rigging the leadership of the free world in his favor.

So, enough of my yakkin' ... let's boogie!

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Todd Frazier, $13.5M ... TENDER

Brett Lawrie, $5.1M ... NON-TENDER*

Avisail Garcia, $3.5M ... NON-TENDER

Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M ... TENDER

Dan Jennings, $1.2M ... TENDER

J.B. Shuck, $1M ... NON-TENDER

Jake Petricka, $900K ... TENDER

Zach Putnam, $900K ... TENDER

Daniel Webb, $600K ... NON-TENDER

*Regarding Brett Grindy McGrinderson Grindo Lawrie, I run a trade by the Dodgers, David Robertson and Brett Lawrie and an arm sleeve to be named later for Yasiel Puig and c Jack Murphy (I don’t know jack about Murphy, but Grandal rightfully blocks him from the majors, Murphy has some kickass FRAA per BP—14th in all of organized baseball in 2016—and he went to Princeton, so if he can't make the bigs with the White Sox perhaps he can help Hahn put together next year's offseason plan). While I suspect the Dodgers could use D-Robbie after smartly passing on eight fat figures to re-sign Kenley Jansen, it seems their hearts may be curiously set on Ryan Braun. Thus, no Puig on the South Side. Once L.A. says no, I non-tender Lawrie with a fresh box of sliding pads and one free neck ink coupon at Southside Tattoos.

Miggy Gonzalez I will entreat with an extension, particularly in light of his salary being slashed in half via arb. Say, two years/$7.5 million or three years/$11.5.

I told Rick Hahn he was a golden god on the day he snagged Avisail. I was very wrong. He was wronger. Bye bye bye Avi.

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Matt Albers: $3M for 2017 or a $250,000 buyout

Hey, hey, hey, BUYOUT, and include a first-class bus ticket and a KFC bucket for his hilarity and heroism in Queens.

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

Austin Jackson: Made $5 million in 2016. NO

Alex Avila: Made $2.5 million in 2016. NO NO

Justin Morneau: Made $1 million in 2016, although he signed during the season. NO NO NO

Free agents

No 1: Dexter Fowler (four years, $60M)

He’s been worth $15 million every year he’s played. His defensive correction in 2016 (I believe it was called, "I’m gonna play deeper") turned his defensive numbers around. Yeah, Cubbie stink. Not a lot of great options otherwise. He could slide to LF in the future.

No. 2: Ivan Nova (three years, $30M)

I’m not very excited about Nova, but this is a modest investment on a still-promising still-young pitcher and, you know, Coop dust. Again, not a lot of inspired options otherwise.

No. 3: Carlos Beltran (two years, $16M)

This is nothing for a DH who can hit. He’ll be paid as a 1 WAR player, he’s basically had one year in his career worse than that. 2.0 WAR last year. Could spot in OF, and not in an ironic Adam Dunn or Avisail Garcia way, in a pinch. Switch-hitter. Future HOF. No big whup. And if his market is stale because today's young turks in the executive suites think the Hall of Fame is overrated or switch-hitting dicks around with all their splits, maybe turn Beltran's second year into a mutual option or some such.

No. 4: Chase Utley (one year, $7M)

Unlike Jimmy Rollins, Utley's got something left in the tank. I know picking up oldsters is anathema for so many. Two years ago my plan included a trade for Ben Zobrist and many SSS evaluators scoffed that Zobrist, in 2014, was too old. Yeah, old like a Swiss Army Knife, am I right? Utley went 2.0 bWAR last year. Fielding doesn’t suck. He (and Beltran, and Fowler) brings some vet moxie to the club. I know everyone has their own suites and unboxes their own daily pair of spikes and smokes their own private label cigars these days, but I’m not exactly Hawking Insane when I say I’d like to see a little vet leadership on this club. Can’t do a worse job than Drake LaRoche or Chris Sale.

And no, next year I won't suggest signing Ryan Howard or Bobby Abreu.

Trades

No. 1 Trade Chris Sale to the Houston Astros for c Tyler Heineman (AAA, unranked), sp David Paulino (majors, BA#7 BP#9), RF Ramon Laureano (AA, MiLB #25), and sp Francis Martes (AAA, BA#2 BP#3 MiLB #110).

No one wants to trade Chris Sale. But Sale, more even than the lesser-paid (and arguably equivalent) Jose Quintana, is paid way under market given his status with the team and peripheral b.s. like All-Star Games, uniform shredding, team leadership, Condorification. Sale may talk like he will be a White Sox for life, but there’s no way the team matches the money he will be offered in a few years—not even close. He was "loyal" for his first contract. Let Boston or L.A. pay for his future rotator cuffs.

I don’t agree that trading Sale necessitates a teardown that must include trading Q—or Eaton, Abreu, Frazier, Cooper, Harrelson, Minoso, for that matter. The front office's gut on their two underpaid starters is not known, but I'm hazarding they’d peg Sale as a 5% chance to re-sign (even if offers were matched, he was told him to be a closer, he missed Drake, has told Williams to fuck off twice now, perpetrated the retro uni debacle, suffered a mysterious pickup truck injury, and doesn't have great sales moxie when badgering season ticketholders to renew) and Q 50+% chance to resign (good soldier, appreciative of White Sox resuscitating his career, getting happy and sassy off of earning one win and five no-decisions per month vs. zero wins and six no-decisions).

The guess here is the White Sox will be fairly blown away by an offer this winter, thus making a Sale trade possible. If not, no sweat, our ace stays. If the worst case is three years left of the best lefty in the A.L., that’s a pretty OK worst case, yeah?

Given the cleverness of the fellas running the North Side, L.A., Boston, I have little confidence that any of those teams, even in bidding war mode, will be outfoxed by our front office henhouse. Houston, however … it overpaid on their deal for Giles with Philly last year, right? The Astros also underachieved in 2016 and might be a little itchy with the trigger finger, even if the average age of a guy on their roster is like 16.

Assuming Houston will pony up to keep Jason Castro (why wouldn’t they, and frankly I’m not too hot paying $8-10 million for another Tyler Flowers), Heineman is somewhat blocked in the majors. He has some nice FRAA numbers, so I could see him with the White Sox as early as 2017. Paulino looks like a stud and slides into the No. 5 slot unless Carson Fulmer beats him out. Laureano is a plus-defender outfield stud, with bat. Martes is another promising arm.

(I am no larry when it comes to prospects; I am trying to be realistic in return for the White Sox, and this is a combination of prime prospects and lesser, still promising guys. Perhaps to some of you this is an outrageous haul; I think there’s an angle where it actually might be too paltry. If one of these prospects drove his ATV off a precipitous sand dune this offseason, don’t bust my balls. You get where I’m coming from, Houston being a team to attempt to exploit for Sale, and my minimum return being a couple of safe "sure things" and a couple of safe "prospects" in exchange for the guy who will likely deliver the division to the Astros in 2017.)

That said, Paulino is probably the one guy I have to have to plug into Sale’s spot (soon), and I need a catcher, but I’d also be happy with of-2b Tony Kemp, ss Nolan Fontana, cf Tony Fisher, maybe even 2b-ss Can Jong Moon. I need at least one or two guys on the verge of the majors and another couple who are coming hard, for Sale. If Houston wants to sub two blue-chip lower-level prospects for any of these guys, sure, we can talk.

No. 2 Trade David Robertson to the Yankees for Brian McCann.

McCann is an overpaid backup catcher now that the Gary Sanchez era has begun. Sure, he could DH in New York, but he’s making $17 million and apparently the Yankees are sort of fiscally responsible now? McCann has really tailed off over the past couple of seasons, so this deal is risky (of course, Robertson has been tailing off too, yeah). But I’m gambling McCann can be a 2 WAR catcher with plus D/framing for the couple of seasons remaining on his deal.

Robertson isn’t even the best short reliever on the team any longer, with the continued emergence of Nate Jones. While I approved Robertson’s signing for the 2015 season from a thank-god-they’re-spending perspective, competitively it was stupid, even as an attempt to foam down the flammable bullpen of 2014. The Yankees, doubtfully luring Aroldis Chapman back and seemingly shaky with Dellin Betances as closer, might welcome shedding a few million in salary and bringing back Robertson.

No. 3 Trade Jacob May (or a spare arm, this is just a minors deal) to the Dodgers for c Jack Murphy.

I am presuming L.A. can spare a career-minors, Triple-A catcher with solid defensive skills who is blocked at the majors level for something in our system.

And no, I am not obsessed with Jack Murphy and the swashbuckling good looks that seem to say he still thinks Charlie Finley is handing out bonus checks for facial hair. Given our utter lack of catching (and presuming Zack Collins won’t reach the majors as a backstop), I would like to see Hahn troll systems for similarly blocked catchers to stockpile some at least semi-legit guys. Last year’s scenario, where a variety of twists and turns mostly involving the White Sox catchers systemwide playing about as well as Bill Nahorodny or Mike Colbern would, today, at age 63, is unconscionable and embarrassing.

I don’t need Hahn to find the next Mike Piazza. While I was never a big fan of Flowers, after 2016 I see the value in a fella who sweetly lopes like Peter Puma, Ks like Adam Dunn, and catches the shit out of a ballgame. I’m content if need be to look at catcher as our pitcher’s spot in the batting order; I’ll take no offensive ability if it means the defense, arm, game management and framing are sound. Peter Pumability is optional.

No. 4 James Shields to an enigma swallowed by an eggroll trapped inside a finger puzzle.

If Big Game can’t be a plus-WAR pitcher in ST/early season and the team is competitive, give him the ol’ Johnny Danks and set him free. If the team sucks out of the gate and we’re in full sell June onward, let him take up a roster spot, sulk in the bullpen, fill in at the elotes stand, and mop up for blown starts the same way he made Albers, Fulmer et. al sawdust his vomit in 2016.

Summary

Starters

C Brian McCann (L)

1B Jose Abreu (R)

2B Chase Utley (L)

SS Tim Anderson (R)

3B Todd Frazier (R)

LF Melky Cabrera (B)

CF Dexter Fowler (B)

RF Adam Eaton (L)

DH Carlos Beltran (B)

Bench

C Omar Narvaez (or Tyler Heineman)

IF Carlos Sanchez

OF Charlie Tilson

IF Tyler Saladino

Rotation

Jose Quintana

Miguel Gonzalez

Carlos Rodon

Ivan Nova

James Shields/David Paulino/Carson Fulmer/Alec Hansen/Rich Wortham

Bullpen

CL Nate Jones

RHP Jake Petricka

LHP Zach Putnam

LHP Dan Jennings

RHP Michael Ynoa

RHP Zack Burdi

RHP Tommy Kahnle

The Numbers

The payroll is at $129,800,00, and that includes Shields, whether in the rotation, spitting seeds in the bullpen, or at home in California trimming his beard.

The team bWAR for my 25-man roster is 46.5 (the 2016 roster of the 25 guys with the most PA or games pitched for the team was 37.4). For my projected 2017 roster, I have increased or decreased bWAR in some cases as a gut projection:

McCann 2.0 (2015 was 0.9)

Anderson 3.0 (2.8)

Cabrera 2.0 (2.6)

Fowler 3.0 (4.2)

Eaton 5.0 (6.2)

Saladino 2.0 (1.8)

Sanchez 1.0 (0.0)

Narvaez 0.5 (0.3)

Tilson 0.5 (0.0)

Quintana 5.0 (5.2)

Rodon 2.0 (1.5)

Shields/Paulino/Fulmer 1.0 (Shields -1.9, Fulmer -0.3, Paulino 0.0, Hansen 0.0)

Burdi 0.5 (0.0)

Petricka 0.5 (0.0)

Putnam 0.5 (0.7)

Kahnle 0.5 (0.7)

Jones 2.0 (2.3)

If you literally assumed everyone on the roster would repeat their 2015 bWAR, my team’s total is a still-solid 45.2. And as a bit of a control, if the White Sox went cheap and made no real additions at all, the roster would project as 44.1 bWAR.

(In other words, subtracting the several negative-WAR players from the team and—ideally—not adding any in 2017 will make the difference between a playoff contender and middling. It’s a monkeys-typing-Shakespeare scenario, right, Rick? Right, Ken?)

The difference with my plan is that playoff competitiveness is achieved under budget and having swapped out Sale’s present-day gaudy WAR for zero 2017 WAR—but potentially much future production from Houston’s blue chips. So I’ve kept the team competitive, yet also restocked by selling off Sale and his shears.

And finally, here are some strange coding words and miscellaneous errata I can't seem to scourge from my cut-and-pasted Word file. I am the walrus. I buried Paul. Watch out! You'll scratch the album!

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