Beautox’s Offseason Plan
Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):
Todd Frazier, $13.5M - Tender
Brett Lawrie, $5.1M - Tender
Avisail Garcia, $3.5M - Non-Tender
Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M - Tender
Dan Jennings, $1.2M - Tender
J.B. Shuck, $1M - Non-Tender
Jake Petricka, $900K - Tender
Zach Putnam, $900K - Tender
Daniel Webb, $600K - Non-Tender
Explain the toughest calls if necessary: Pretty straight forward across the board
Contract options (pick up or buy out)
Matt Albers: $3M for 2017 or a $250,000 buyout - Buyout
Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)
Austin Jackson: Made $5 million in 2016. - Let Go
Alex Avila: Made $2.5 million in 2016. - Let Go
Justin Morneau: Made $1 million in 2016, although he signed during the season. - Re-Sign for 2.5 million.
Sign a number of project pitchers like CJ Wilson, Jarrod Parker, Doug Fister and others to suppress the future rotation’s arbitration eligibility.
Sign someone like Mark Teixeira as a nice veteran presence and possible player to be flipped at the deadline in a similar fashion as Carlos Beltran last deadline.
I'll be using The Point of Pittsburgh as a soft guide to surplus value of prospects for this exercise.
Chris Sale to Boston for OF Andrew Benintendi, 3B Rafael Devers, LHP Jason Groome & C/LF Blake Swihart. Sales surplus value is near 150 million and going by the point of Pittsburgh's mlb prospect surplus values, this deal on Boston’s end comes in around 165 million while not taking into account Swihart’s value and the premium placed on the free agent market since it is a seller’s market this offseason.
Jose Quintana to Houston for SS/3B/2B Alex Bregman, RHP Francis Martes, RHP David Paulino & OF Teoscar Hernandez. It has been said this offseason Houston is willing to move Bregman for a top of the line starter and Quintana fits the bill. Jose’s surplus value comes in right around 130m, this package without factoring in Hernandez’s value comes in at about 120 so its a bit light in comparison to the Sale package so there could be an additional piece added.
Jose Abreu to Texas for LHP Yohander Mendez, 3B/1B/LF Joey Gallo, OF Leody Taveras. The rangers have holes with their starting pitching, first base and center field, this trade was a bit of a challenge to properly value. I see Aberu’s value being somewhere near 40 million while Joey Gallo’s value continues to plummet in a similar fashion to Mike Olt. Yohander looks to be a mid to back of the rotation starter and Taveras offers a lot of upside but will take a bit of time to develop in the minors.
Todd Frazier, Nate Jones & Brett Lawrie to Los Angeles for 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, 2B/C Austin Barnes & SS Gavin Lux. I think the dodgers pass on re-signing Turner and Utley and will need an additional arm out of the pen to back up Jansen or Chapman or whomever they sign this offseason. Bellinger doesn’t have a path in LA for the foreseeable future with Adrian locked up. Barnes hasn’t delivered on any of his promise yet and will be 27 on opening day and Lux is a prospect the white sox heavily scouted during the ‘16 draft. Frazier offers both surplus value and a likely draft pick after ‘17. Jones is an asset that should provide anywhere from 28-40m in surplus value alone during the life of his contract and Lawrie gives them a second basemen with youth and some upside with a slim chance of getting a draft pick in ‘17. If the dodgers go this route and QO Turner and Jansen while signing Chapman and trading for Frazier that affords them two additional draft picks in the ‘17 draft.
David Robertson to San Francisco for OF Bryan Reynolds and LHP Steven Okert. Even with his knee being cleaned out before the start of the season relief pitching will be at a premium after the world series demonstrations of Chicago and Cleveland. Robertson has a little bit of surplus value and is likely being paid nearly what he is worth. Reynolds was the Giants first round draft pick from vanderbilt and a switch hitter another prospect that would be in the mold of the direction of "baseball players" as seen by drafting Collins, Fisher and Call. Okert looks to be a middle reliever that can handle both righties and lefties
Melky Cabrera and Miguel Gonzalez to Toronto for RHP Sean Reid-Foley and LHP Angel Perdomo. Depending on what you think 1 WAR will cost this offseason this is a very close and "fair" trade; Reid-Foley has a surplus value of 15.6m and Gonzalez’s value will likely be around 14M. There is no way the jays QO Saunders for 17.2m, Melky is likely being paid what he will produce for ‘17 and there is a slim chance they could extend him a QO next year, same applies for Gonzalez. There is familiarity with Melky within the organization and Gonzalez has had success in the East previously with the O’s. Reid-Foley is a classic white sox pitching target - "Reid-Foley's delivery and arm action may not be picturesque, but he has the physical strength and athleticism to repeat both." Perdomo is a solid looking lottery ticket, both of these arms haven’t moved beyond high A.
The only pieces of the current 25 man roster that will likely be around for the next White Sox window are Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson, by having a fire sale in this fashion the farm system now has waves of talent to infuse as not all prospects will pan out.
The remaining pen arms that are solid: Petricka, Putman and Jennings can be moved at the deadline with the place holding rotation members and veteran bats provided they perform, if not they served their purpose of mentoring the future core while ideally getting an additional year of control out of them by keeping them down on the farm.
This team will likely have a top 5 draft pick in ‘18 and a top 10 pick in ‘19.
Here is what the organization’s depth chart would like at the start of ‘17
Here is what the 25 man roster would look like going into ‘18