Dayton’s ‘this is the boring year of the rebuild’ plan

Dayton’s Offseason Plan

This was a more fun exercise last year, when you could go full on rebuild or go for a last gasp at contention. This year, the logical idea is to be mostly patient with the process, maybe pick up a few reclamation guys. I am going to try to make things a little more interesting then that even if I am not trying to contend.

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Explain the toughest calls if necessary: The grab bag of pen arms was a little tough to decide on. So many injuries, some decent small sample size work. Can never have enough depth, but I chose to just tender Al out of the bunch. I would be up for minor league deals for basically any of the others. I am expecting the Sox do in fact bring Putnam back on some kind of option deal to get him for 2019 and let him come back from TJ.

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

Elaborate if needed: Both are easily gone.

Free agents

No. 1: Tyler Chatwood 2 years 18mil: This is the hot name I’m sure, but in risk of not being original, I think it makes a lot of sense. There is just so much to like for the price. He’s been better then standard stats show and has some real interesting traits, whether it be his ground ball tendency (58.1% great for this park), his random uptick in velocity (was over 95mph by the end of the year) and him being a victim of Coors with better away numbers. Team all that with Cooper? Would really like to see this.

No. 2: Juan Nicasio 2 years 15mil: Going to take a gamble here to anchor our pen on a solid 2017 from Nicasio. It’s not cheap considering his lack of a track record, but it’s not Holland/Davis prices either. There is surplus value here if you hit. His stuff has always been solid and finally proved it as a full time back end pen guy.

No. 3 Joe Smith 2 years 9 mil:

Another reliable back end pen guy for stability and potential future trade value.

No. 4 Miguel Gonzalez 1 year 4 mil

Welcome back, we need more innings ate.

No. 5 Colby Rasmus 1 year 8mil

Seems like if this was gong to happen it already would have, but what the hell. If anyone can find where Colby went we could use a competent CF with some upside for possible resale. Lefty power is a plus.


No. 1: Trade James Shields to the Atlanta Braves for Matt Kemp, Austin Riley and 6 million

Summary: James Shields is tradable! Okay for a bad contract -WAR player, but still?! Just swapping problems here. Kemp can serve a useful role as long as he’s never in the field, and the Braves seem to always be looking for a veteran starter regardless of ability. His decent showing after changing his arm angle may make him interesting enough for the Braves. The money is weird to even out here, because part of Shields is San Diego’s responsibility, and part of Kemp’s is ALSO the Padres responsibility as well as LA. So instead of just evening out I have Atlanta sending a prospect back for part of it. Riley is a good enough bet to add to our vacant future third baseman pool. Essentially we are buying him here.



  1. Sanchez 3b
  2. Moncada 2b
  3. Abreu 1b
  4. A. Garcia RF
  5. Kemp DH
  6. Delmonico LF
  7. Rasmus CF
  8. Anderson SS
  9. Narvaez C


  1. L. Garcia CF
  2. Anderson SS
  3. Abreu 1b
  4. A. Garcia RF
  5. Kemp DH
  6. Moncada 2b
  7. Davidson/Sanchez 3b
  8. Delmonico LF
  9. Smith C

Bench: Tilson OF, Peter IF, L. Garcia OF/IF/Rasmus OF, Smith/Narvaez C, Davidson

Bench probably a little confusing, based on who isn’t in the lineup in my couple platoons. Sanchez gets the majority of the playing time over Davidson even v. LHP but I figure that’s where his main role will be and some DH at bats. Not expecting much. Sanchez isn’t an ideal leadoff hitter by any means, but I don’t really know what else to put there. I think it’s not a good spot for Moncada’s development even if he Is the most qualified now.

SP 1. Giolito

SP 2. Chatwood

SP 3. Lopez

SP 4. Gonzalez

SP 5. Fulmer

Closer: Nicasio

Pen: smith, Jones, Alburquerque, Minaya, Infante, Bummer

Eloy up by the all star break

Kopech up by mid May

Rodon back by the all star break

Hansen up in September call-ups

Team goes 77-85 and doesn’t exactly ‘tank’ as they start coming together in the second half after some growing pains. Ideally they come up with some more midseason trade chips. There is some wild outside shot at contention (Brewers or Twins style) if everything were to go crazy right so that gives the casual fans some hope. I do think they will at least make a move or two that serves both that far fetched possibility but also being a trade chip. Matt Kemp was just a... I don’t know.. weird idea I just couldn’t get Out of my head.

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