To just read the update, scroll down to the MLB Pipeline listing ...
A week ago, both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus released their lists of preseason Top 100 prospects, while MLB Pipeline waited until Saturday (their lists remain in this feature, below, and the average ranks now cover all three Top 100s).
The news wasn’t great by any stretch, in terms of White Sox prospects. But Law still puts three White Sox — Eloy Jiménez, Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease — in his Top 25, and is actually more generous to the White Sox than Baseball America.
Of course, it’s all made worse by Fernando Tatis Jr. jumping from No. 3 to No. 1, ahead of even the gilded Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and him being enamored with San Diego prospects (six in his Top 50).
ESPN’s full list is below, and an aggregate of rankings follows at the end of the article.
ESPN (Keith Law)
5. Eloy Jiménez, OF (up one spot from 2018)
20. Michael Kopech, RHP (down nine)
25. Dylan Cease, RHP (unranked)
54. Luis Robert, OF (down eight)
109. Dane Dunning, RHP (unranked)
112. Nick Madrigal, 2B (unranked)
“I think it’s fair to say that Eloy is a full-grown man, and his bat is clearly ready for the majors,” leads off Jiménez’s writeup from Law, while the player ahead of him, Forrest Whitley, starts with, “Whitley’s year was sort of a disaster.” Hmm. Law is enamored of Eloy’s bat and power (of course), dings him as a below average runner and defender, but finishes with “any team would gladly take a few runs not prevented by his glove for the high-average and 30-homer bat he’ll provide.”
Kopech gets raves as well, as Law says “Kopech seems to have No. 1 starter everything — stuff, size, athleticism and, as he showed for two months, command,” making the rather obvious comp of Noah Syndergaard. The blurb ends on a good note: “... if Kopech comes back with the same stuff, there’s no good reason he can’t be Chicago’s ace in two years.”
And from one ace to another, Cease makes a huge leap for Law, from unranked to No. 25 overall. All the MPHs and innings counts aside, Law says Cease “just looked better last year, less restricted or timid when throwing, which is probably tied to the better curveball, and he overpowered hitters at two levels.” Again, it all ends on a good note: “... all indicators are pointing up, and he has No. 1 starter stuff if he can hold up in that role.”
Robert tumbled out of the Top 50, eight spots to No. 54. Law likens Robert to a young Jermaine Dye in batting practice. Law’s basement for Robert seems to be plus defense in center field, “mistake power” and a solid everyday player. Ceiling, Law touts Robert’s “star-level tools” that, with better health, could lead to more than just an average MLB player.
One spot the White Sox are well represented on Law’s list is in the “extras” category, i.e. guys who just fell short of the Top 100. The South Siders place two there, Dane Dunning at No. 109 and Nick Madrigal at (an unspecified but presumed) No. 112.
Dunning “might have made” the Top 100 if not for his health (tough crowd, man), namely a “moderate elbow strain that has not required surgery yet” (damn, that’s cold). Law projects Dunning as a No. 3 presuming his breaking stuff matures, and, as the case with Robert, good health.
Law dings Madrigal for a very limited upside, basing that significantly on his grade-35 power, which limits him to “average regular.” Law does offer routes to MLB stardom: .300-plus average with good gap power, and/or upping the ISO, and/or developing the defense to that of “Chase Utley.”
Not to pick on Law at all, but there’s no mention of the wrist injury suffered last spring that likely sapped some of Madrigal’s power, or the fact that one of Madrigal’s most universal plaudits has been his defense. Madrigal was a No. 15 (!) Baseball Prospectus selection, and falls almost 100 places at ESPN; now those are a couple of dissenting opinions.
3. Eloy Jiménez, OF (same as 2018)
18. Michael Kopech, RHP (up one)
21. Dylan Cease, RHP (up four)
40. Luis Robert, OF (up four)
47. Nick Madrigal, 2B (up two)
80. Dane Dunning, RHP (down 21)
Just missed: Luis Basabe, OF (not ranked)
Five players in the Top 50!
MLB Pipeline keeps its last updated list for the year as its “season” ranking, so the 2018 ranks are not from a full year ago. However, seeing the lifts and drops is still instructive.
Four of the top five White Sox prospects moved up. Eloy has nowhere to go, really. Kopech got a bump in spite of his TJS. Cease took a predictable step forward from No. 25. Robert continues to march upward and is poised for a major jump in 2019. Madrigal’s gain was modest.
Dunning took a huge ding from MLB, which seems odd given the conservative moves above him on the list, and the fact that Kopech and Robert seemed not to be penalized for injury. And Rutherford, listed at No. 77 last time out, fell completely out of the Top 100. For what? Taking a couple of weeks off after the season? Sheesh.
On February 1, MLB’s reveled each team’s “next” prospect. The White Sox player who just missed the Top 100 was Basabe, making him the team’s No. 7 prospect overall.
The full Top 30 White Sox rankings should be available from MLB in the second week of February.
3. Eloy Jiménez, OF (up one spots from 2018)
21. Michael Kopech, RHP (down 10)
38. Dylan Cease, RHP (not ranked)
43. Nick Madrigal, 2B (not ranked)
76. Luis Robert, OF (down 18)
Six White Sox in BP’s Top 76!
In a move that was harsh but anticipated after Monday’s news, RHP Dane Dunning, ranked No. 82 in last year’s list, fell out of BA’s Top 100.
4. Eloy Jiménez, OF (up two spots from 2018)
15. Nick Madrigal, 2B (not ranked)
24. Michael Kopech, RHP (down seven)
26. Dylan Cease, RHP (not ranked)
45. Luis Robert, OF (up 10)
76. Dane Dunning, OF (up 13)
BP nearly had four White Sox in their Top 25!
Six Top 100 picks is swell, but consider that a year ago, the White Sox placed eight: Yep, Alec Hansen (No. 40 in 2018), Jake Burger (No. 84) and Blake Rutherford (No. 90) all fell out of BP’s Top 100.
Here’s a look at the average ranking among the four Top 100 lists published so far (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, ESPN):
Eloy Jiménez (average rank, 3.75): Only MLB kept Eloy stuck at No. 3 — but then, only MLB had Eloy ranked at No. 3 at the end of last year. ESPN, a bit stingy.
Michael Kopech (20.75): Kopech didn’t get knocked too hard for a mixed MLB debut or his TJS injury/rehab that will keep him out for 2019. Instead, all lists, while applying some caution to Kopech given the severity of his injury, preferred to place fair weight on his outstanding Triple-A season. Kudos to MLB for actually moving Kopech up one spot.
Dylan Cease (27.5): The march to the Top 10 continues for Cease, who took mega-leaps on the BA, BP and ESPN lists, and a still-healthy, four-spot jump with MLB, who already had the righthander ranked in their Top 25. Given that Rick Hahn basically put Cease on the Kopech track for 2019 (Triple-A, and a call-up after the All-Star break), it makes sense that Cease is nipping at Kopech’s tail in the prospect rankings as well.
Luis Robert (53.75): The most fascinating contrast of all lands with Robert. BA chose, not completely unfairly, to ding Robert for basically missing all of 2018’s regular season. Meanwhile, BP must have been agog at Robert’s AFL work this fall, moving him up 10 spots in spite of his All-Absentia 2018 season. MLB also nudged Robert up, four spots from their latest 2018 rankings. ESPN kept Robert’s ranking relatively unchanged.
Nick Madrigal (54.25): BP’s Madrigal love is actually shocking. No. 15 places him impossibly, like 2019 call-up, high. Wow. MLB and BA both ranking him in the 40s seems a bit more realistic. ESPN, in utter, 100-point ranking difference from BP contrast, buries Madrigal in its rankings. Ugh.
Dane Dunning (91.5): Between BP and MLB, Dunning is still considered a Top 100 player; ask BA and ESPN, and he’s not. Overall, somebody at BP really digs the cream of the White Sox crop. While BA used Dunning’s late elbow issues to drag him off of their list (ignoring a season nearly as inspiring as Cease’s), BP not only kept Dunning in its Top 100, but bumped him up 13 spots. MLB sort of split the difference, ranking him high as of their last 2018 rankings (No. 59) but then somewhat inexplicably dropping him 21 spots this time out. ESPN apparently bumped Dunning up from the either, into the “almost” category, at No. 109.