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chisox100's Offseason Plan

Introduction

I'm taking this from the angle of right field being in the highest priority since I am probably more optimistic than most about the potential of our young starters. The overarching goal of the Sox offseason will be to add a star in right and then supplemental depth. This will need to be done with the overarching goal of not plundering the minor league too much to preserve the notion of "sustained success" Hahn has talked about.

Manager

Bruce Bochy for manager. Plenty of postseason experience and no baggage attached like Cora or Hinch. A little less of a dinosaur than Larussa. The sheer level of talent I believe would be enough to pull him out of retirement.

Arbitration:

Nomar Mazara, $5.9 million- non-tender, sorry dude, you looked better the last few weeks, but i've got bigger plans than betting on your bounce back.

Yolmer Sánchez, $2 million- non-tender, also sorry. I prefer you to Mendick but every penny saved counts with this plan.

Adam Engel, $1.4 million- tender, obviously

Carlos Rodón, $4.55 million- tender, too much potential to not give one more shot

Lucas Giolito, $5.3 million- tender, duh

Reynaldo López, $2.2 million- tender, same as Rodon

Evan Marshall, $1.9 million- tender, why wouldn't you?

Jace Fry, $1 million- tender- for the sake of depth, he'll be good to have

Impending Free Agents

Alex Colomé: qualifying offer

James McCann: qualifying offer

Jarrod Dyson (2020 salary: $2 million): let go

Team Contract Options

Edwin Encarnación (2021 salary: $12 million): decline

Gio González (2021 salary: $7 million): decline

Leury García (2021 salary: $3.5 million): pickup option

Free agents

-Going to assume McCann and Colome both decline. This could go either way. 18 million is a HUGE pay raise. And with a QO attached in a pandemic, they might not do too well on the open market but I assume they'll both bet on themselves and try and get multi year deals elsewhere. We get two draft picks for them, so yay! On the off chance, one says yes, we keep depth and only have the big money commitment for a year.

-Sign Jose Quintana 1 year 6.2 million. Quintana is a shell of his former self. He won't be getting much money on the open market in a pandemic. I think he'll be intrigued by the Sox with hopes of regaining what he lost on the northside and put himself in a position to bounce back and get a multi year deal next year. Sox get a low risk inning eater without breaking bank.

Trades

Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez, Zack Collins, Jared Kelley, Jonathan Stevier and Gavin Sheets to Milwaukee for Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain.

I imagine Milwaukee got hit hard by the pandemic. They've never been massive spenders despite having pretty great attendence. Take that attendence away and knowing their team is in decline, and I think they'll go into heavy cost cutting and pivot to a quick 1-2 year rebuild as they tend to do. Yelich and Cain weren't decisive factors this year and they still made the playoffs. So i'm thinking they'll look to unload these large contracts for a combination of cheaper major league ready players with potential (Lopez, Rodon, Collins) to stay somewhat compeitive for TV revenue's sake and then some supplimental prospects (our #6, 7 and 10 prospects).

Before anyone says this is crazy unrealistic (I mean it probably is but here me out): I'm operating on the assumption that Cain doesn't have much value because of his large contract and declining abilities. Taking him with Yelich, whose coming off a down year, reduces the need to unload more top tier prospects. In summary, Milwaukee gets major league ready potential, a prospect boost and a MASSIVE reducation in salary obligations.

The Sox get rid of their glut of unproven starting pitchers in exchange for the potent left handed right fielder that Mazara wasn't and Lorenzo Cain can provide veteran leadership and spot starts in the outfield and DH. If he can't hang at the major league level anymore, cut 'em and eat the salary with the comfort of knowing taking it on probably saved Vaughn from being in this trade. So the money obligations would be:

Yelich: 8 years, 192 million

Cain: 2 years, 32 million

Opening Day Lineup:

SS- Anderson

3B- Moncada

1B- Abreu

RF- Yelich

LF- Jimenez

C- Grandal

CF- Robert

DH- Cain/Vaughn

2B- Madrigal

Bench: Garcia, Mendick, Engel

SP- Giolito

SP- Keuchel

SP- Dunning

SP- Cease

SP- Quintana

SP- Kopech

RP- Burdi/Cordero/Whoever Looks Good in Spring Training

RP- Marshal

RP- Foster

RP- Crochet

RP- Heuer

RP- Foster

CP- Bummer

Crunching the Numbers:

Pre-Offseason Commitments: $84 million

Lopez, Collins and Rodon (sent to MIL): -$7.7 million

Yelich and Cain (added from MIL): + $32 million

Quintana: +$6.2 million

Total: $116 million

How do you see position/rotation/bullpen battles shaking out?

-In this plan, we lose Colome and don't replace him. Bummer gets first stab at the closer role. If he doesn't work, odds are someone else like Foster, Heuer or Crochet will step up.

-Even with the subtraction of Rodon/Lopez, there's still 6 guys vying for 5 rotation spots, so assuming everyone's spring training goes well, we go with a six man rotation until someone proves they don't belong there. If multiple guys disappoint or go down to injuries, the mid-season trade market will be necessary but I still see that as a better route than giving someone like Stroman 4-5 years and a ton of money.

-The lineup is an absolute murderers row. Yelich provides a huge left handed band, good defense and even when he's struggling, a league leading on base percentage. The lack of a permanent DH allows us to be more flexible (i.e. Engel in left/Jimenez DH'ing, on the off chance of a Cain renaissance play him, Vaughn gets playing time but isn't pressured to be an immediate success).

-The massive resources going towards Yelich hurt our ability to build pitching depth but I genuinely believe we're gonna see good things from Cease and Dunning (maybe Kopech too, who knows) so I don't feel the need to commit multiple years to a starter on the market). Bullpen could use more depth but with our record of recent reliever signing (Herrera, Cishek) I think its a fine gamble to abstain. Mid-season trades exist for a reason.

How does your offseason fit in the framework of Year 5 of the rebuild, given the playoffs in 2020 and expectation to contend for a title in 2021?

Pretty much the entire team is signed at least through 2023 so its World Series or bust in 2021-23. And we've managed to build an incredible team without horrifically plundering the minor leagues. What we lost in the Yelich trade, is somewhat offset by the picks for Colome/McCann's QO.

I'll close this out by acknowledging again, the Yelich trade is a bit farfetched, but instead of telling me i'm an in idiot for it, tell me who you think it would take to pry him away from Milwaukee with Vaughn as the only untouchable?

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