FanPost

Whisoxman's Off-Season Plan

Introduction

I'm late with posting this, as personal matters took more precednce. Anyway, here it goes! This will obviously be a strange off-season, with a just completed 60-game season with no fans and unknown dynamics for 2021. The Sox should be able to slash over $45 million from their 2020 books (Herrera, Encarnacion, Gonzalez, Cishek, Rodon, Detwiler, etc.), so even when adding increased salaries due to arbitration and extra $$ from extensions, the White Sox should still have money to spend. My team salary (not including manager and staff) comes out to just over $135 million, which the team may afford thanks to an increase in television revenue. This figure isn't far off from last year's Opening Day full-season salaries.

Manager

If I were in power, I would have selected Bruce Bochy as the new Sox manager. He's about 13 years younger than La Russa, doesn't have the baggage of Hinch or Cora, and won three World Series (the most recent in 2014). Bochy would command a veteran (and sane) presence in the dugout while still maintaining a reputation as a player's manager.

Pitching Coach

Ruben Niebla -- When Trevor Bauer was with the Indians he absolutely raved about the Niebla's work ethic and lack-of-ego. Also, Bauer and apparently other Indians pitchers also have been enthusiastic about the job Niebla's done. If we can steal such a coach from the Tribe, which has boasted one of the best MLB pitching staffs for quite some time, I'm all for it. I'm OK with keeping Curt Hasler as bullpen coach, but would also consider Danny Farquhar as well.

Arbitration (To Be or Not- to-Be-Tendered):

(all estimates presume a full season and no prorated salaries, as in 2020)

· Nomar Mazara, $5.9 million -- Non-Tender

· Yolmer Sánchez, $2 million -- Non-Tender but could consider re-adding (especially if rosters exceed 26 players)

· Adam Engel, $1.4 million --Tender

· Carlos Rodón, $4.55 million -- Non-Tender

· Lucas Giolito, $5.3 million -- Tender and try to extend.

· Reynaldo López, $2.2 million -- Tender and then trade (see below).

· Evan Marshall, $1.9 million -- Tender

· Jace Fry, $1 million -- Tender

Impending Free Agents

Re-sign, cut loose, or extend a qualifying offer of $18.9 million? (Explain any tough or complicated calls.)

· Alex Colomé (2020 salary: $10,532,500) -- Cut loose but would definitely reconsider if higher-octane arms like Liam Hendricks or Trevor Rosenthal sign elsewhere. He did a nice job the last two years for the Sox, so he's definitely worth considering.

· James McCann (2020 salary: $5.4 million) -- I really don't see how the Sox could give him am 18.9 MIL QO. It’s just too much money to spend on the catcher position, with other more glaring needs presenting themselves. I looked into the possibility of doing it, in the hopes of possibly trading Grandal. However, in case of an extremely light market due to Covid-19, perhaps we could issue a respectable one-year deal with a player option for the second year. This way, he has the option of entering a better free agency market.

Jarrod Dyson (2020 salary: $2 million) -- Cut loose.

Team Options:

· Edwin Encarnación (2021 salary: $12 million) -- Easy decline.

· Gio González (2021 salary: $7 million) -- Easy decline. At least he finally won a game for the Sox.

· Leury García (2021 salary: $3.5 million) -- Pick up.

Free Agents

DJ LeMahieu: 4 years, $76 million. This only works if the trade listed below gets pulled off. LeMahieu seems to be getting better with age and has been among the best players over the past few years. He plays solid defense, is versatile, and wields a strong bat. This year alone, he hit 10 homers in just 50 games and possessed an OPS over 1.000 and walked nearly as much as he struck out. MLB projects him to be paid 4 years and $68 million. I’m offering him a bit extra to lure him away from the likes of the Yankees, Toronto, or other competitors willing to spend some dough. As it is, this would be a huge bargain in a normal year. The only drawback is this would likely cause the White Sox to lose a 2nd round pick, as LeMahieu was given a QO by the Yankees.

Liam Hendriks: 3 years, $39 million. The Sox could go with Bummer or the younger guys here, but Bummer's 2020 injury worries me a bit & we only have 2 months of MLB experience for the likes of Heuer and Foster. Thus Hendriks is my choice here, as he definitely possesses wipeout stuff. Because he's on the wrong side of 30 and due to the volatility of the position, I'm only offering a three-year deal here. I rank him slightly better than Trevor Rosenthal due to posting more overall success in the past three years. Alex Colome is a viable third option as the closer, but only if the other two sign for bigger bucks elsewhere. MLB has him listed as three years and $30 million, but I expect higher due to the high demand for quality back-end bullpens these days.

Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 years, $16 million with a third-year team option for $8 million. There’s not many pitchers I’m enamored with in this year’s free agent class, so with the addition of the above two players, I have the Sox selecting an intriguing but cheaper option as the #3 starter for the rotation. He’s won numerous pitching awards in the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) League. He posted a 2.05 ERA in 127.1 innings this year, allowing 91 hits and 23 walks while fanning 121. At 30, he still has several years left. His fastball tops at 95 mph (with an average of 92.5), and he also features a solid slider, curve and splitter/change mix in his repertoire. More than velocity, his spin rates for all pitches are well above MLB average. The Sox would have to pay an additional posting fee of $4 million with this contract (which I don’t believe is counted against the cap). The last time we won the World Series, Japanese native Tadahito Iguchi played a pivotal role. How nice it would be to see another one help the Sox in future World Series as well!

Mike Foltynewicz: Minor League contract with a $2.5 million salary if he makes the club. This could be a bargain-basement steal if he’s needed for the rotation due to ineffectiveness or injuries from our younger Major League hurlers. He’s had his ups and downs due to inconsistency. It wasn’t all that long ago (2018) when he posted a 2.85 ERA (3.37 FIP) with 200 punchouts for the Braves, and he’s a Minooka native. He’d make an excellent reserve addition.

Trades

Nick Madrigal, Jonathan Stiever, Reynaldo Lopez and Blake Rutherford/Micker Adolfo for Mike Yastrzemski and Sam Selman – Yastrzemski, a late bloomer, has been among the best left-handed hitting right fielders during the past two years and has yet to reach his arbitration years. However, he could be had as he is now 30. Thanks to a combination of defense and offense, he posted a terrific 2.5 WAR this year in 54 games. He slashed .297/.400/.568 this year alone and has play all outfield positions. Selman enjoyed a respectable year in the pen, and as he’d be a third lefty in the bullpen, would prevent the temptation of having Crochet begin the year on the MLB roster. We’re obviously giving up a lot here. Madrigal hit .340 this year and should be a consistent defensive contributor for many years, and Stiever should be a consistent contributor for the Giants in the not-too-distant future. Lopez may pitch better with a change of scenery (and bigger ballpark) and Rutherford (like Madrigal) returns to his home state – his path is clearer for a MLB corner spot with the Giants than with the Sox. Obviously, the reason the Sox do this deal is (1) the Sox pitching depth and (2) the number of affordable and controllable years with Carl’s grandson (he’s controllable through 2025).

Summary

Here’s how my 26-man roster sits for now:

Lucas Giolito SP: 5.3 M
Dallas Keuchel SP: 18 M
Tomoyuki Sagano SP: 8 M
Michael Kopech SP: 575 K
Dane Dunning SP: 575 K
Liam Hendricks RP: 13 M
Aaron Bummer (RP): 2 M
Codi Heuer (RP): 575 K
Evan Marshall (RP): 1.9 M
Matt Foster (RP): 575 K
Sam Selman (LP): 575K
Dylan Cease (RP): 575 K
Jimmy Cordero (RP): 575 K

C Yasmani Grandal 18.25 M
C Zack Collins 575 K
1B Jose Abreu 17.666 M
2B DJ LeMahieu 19 M
SS Tim Anderson 7.25 M
3B Yoan Moncada 6.8 M
MI Danny Mendick 575 K
CI/DH Andrew Vaughn 575 K but would try to extend for 6 years, 43 mil
OF Eloy Jimenez 4.333M
OF Luis Robert 3.5 M
OF Mike Yastrzemski 575 K
OF Adam Engel 1.4 M
U Leury Garcia $3.5 M

Other notes:

I have Cease beginning the year in the bullpen, but if Kopech isn’t ready to begin the season in the MLB club, he could easily be inserted into the rotation temporarily. Assuming the Sox are in the pennant race in September, Crochet will likely be added to the bullpen at that time with the expectation he will begin the 2022 season in the rotation. If the Sox rotation struggles in 2021, the Sox could look at a mid-season deal with the Rangers for Lance Lynn.

My overall team salary breaks down to a shade under $136 million (not including extensions to Vaughn or Giolito), which isn’t bad but am not sure if that’s too high in the COVID-19 baseball economy. I believe the rotation quality and depth will improve over 2020 thanks to the acquisitions of Sugano and Foltynewicz, and with the amount of depth of arms in our system, I believe we can add a hurler like Lance Lynn at the trade deadline if needed. In the meantime, our pitchers should have plenty of leeway. Just look at this possible lineup, which is hard to figure out the order at this time because EVERYONE is so good (not to mention the defense isn't too shabby either):

SS Tim Anderson
3B Yoan Moncada
2B DJ LeMahieu
1B Jose Abreu
LF Eloy Jimenez
RF Mike Yastrzemski
OF Luis Robert
DH Andrew Vaughn
C Yasmani Grandal

The team adds a high-octane closer in the bullpen, while still possessing depth in the likes of Tyler Johnson, Zack Burdi, Bernardo Flores and Jacob Lindgren if needed. Yermin Mercedes is still available as a DH in case the team doesn’t deem Vaughn quite ready to begin the 2021 season. I really like this time, and we’ll still have plenty of salary left to either acquire talent in future years or grant extensions to Giolito and Vaughn.

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