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Two weeks ago, you would think that it would be easy to find a sharp betting angle in a Twins/White Sox series.
A lot has changed since then, with Minnesota winning seven of their last nine despite otherwise being a massive disappointment so far this season compared to preseason projections. On the South Side of Chicago, a White Sox squad that had a somewhat comfortable lead in the American League Central has dropped seven of its last nine.
The Twins are white-hot right now, with a hard-hitting lineup with more home runs than all but two teams this season. While their pitching staff is the worst in the American League with a bottom-five ERA this season, I am confident that the Twins can crush the ball enough to at least somewhat make up for their poor pitching. This becomes even more problematic for Chicago, considering how difficult it can be to keep the ball in the yard at Guaranteed Rate Field.
For the White Sox, injuries have marred the latter half of June, and it does not help that slugger José Abreu was hit in the knee on Sunday with a pitch by right-handed reliever JT Chargois of the Seattle Mariners. He remains day-to-day and the Sox will want him back in the lineup soon. A homestand against an AL Central basement-dwelling Minnesota team could be just what the doctor ordered, but Chicago will have to regroup and refocus in order to handle business.
The Pitching Matchup
The Twins will be sending out Kenta Maeda (3-2, 4.85 ERA) while the White Sox will counter with Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.80 ERA) on Monday evening. Both pitchers had a dreadful beginning to the 2021 season, but they have both since righted the ship with varying degrees of success. Maeda has had a week of rest, with his last start being a 5 1⁄3-inning appearance while giving up two runs. In Giolito’s previous seven outings, he has managed to reach seven strikeouts in all but one of those games. He has also managed to last six innings in eight straight starts.
The Pick
The total is a really appealing angle, with the under being 5-2 in the previous seven games between Chicago and Minnesota at Guaranteed Rate Field. Additionally, the game opened with a total of 10.5 and has since been driven down to 8.5 by sharp bettors. Personally, I feel like the total carries some risk on Monday night, with the Twins offense being so strong and the White Sox still being able to tear Minnesota’s bullpen asunder even in their current weakened state.
If you are going to risk a bet on the total, I completely understand, but I am instead going to be laying my money on the Twins moneyline (+120 as of this writing, odds courtesy of WynnBET). The White Sox are struggling right now, so I am going with the hot hand and taking Minnesota at this number before it changes too much more.