The Sharp Money Market for July 4, 2021

The White Sox and Detroit Tigers will wrap up a three-game weekend series on the Fourth of July, and the first two games were high-scoring. Chicago’s bats came alive in their previous series against the Minnesota Twins, and that trend carried on when they traveled to the Motor City.

While the Tigers are still far behind the White Sox in the AL Central standings, they have been an entertaining team and have been a personal betting darling for me. Let us break down the most appealing betting angle for the final game of this series.

The Listed Pitchers

Lucas Giolito (6-5, 3.84 ERA) will be taking the mound during this matinee game for the White Sox. In his most recent start against the Minnesota Twins, he was tagged for three earned runs and only managed one strikeout despite lasting six innings. Regardless, he was able to get the win last time out. If Giolito’s stuff is not what it should be on Sunday, he will have to expect more from his teammates, as they have generated an average of 4.39 in run support in his starts.

For the Detroit Tigers, rookie Matt Manning (1-2, 8.16 ERA) will be turned to. He was disastrous in his most recent start against Cleveland, a 13-5 romp in which Manning gave up nine earned runs. There is still time for him to turn his season around, but the early returns are not promising. He has yet to last longer than 5 ²⁄₃ innings in the three games he has started in 2021, but he has managed to get 5.54 runs per game in support. If he can limit his mistakes against a dangerous White Sox lineup, there is a good chance that his team can handle the rest.

The Hot Hitters

The White Sox recently have gotten a ton of production out of their veteran players as well as their rookies. Despite seeing their winning streak ended in a 11-5 drubbing at Comerica Park on Saturday, the bats have been impressive. The new additions of infielder/outfielder Gavin Sheets and third baseman Jake Burger were quieted on Saturday, but they’ve otherwise produced offensively. Last week, Sheets became the first Sox player to get at least one hit and RBI in each of his first four career games, while Burger had two hits in his debut.

In the game against Detroit on Saturday, the White Sox were able to establish an early lead thanks to Tim Anderson’s two doubles and two runs, Leury García’s two-run homer, and the two RBIs from the great José Abreu. It would be easy to talk yourself into thinking that the White Sox’s last game was an aberration during a stretch of great, winning baseball.

The Pick

For my money, I will have to go on the run total over, which currently stands at 8.5 runs (-122). The Tigers are very unpredictable, and you never know whether it is going to be one of their games that features three runs — or close to 20. I trust an exceptionally good White Sox lineup to take advantage of Matt Manning and knock him out early in the game. If the Tigers’ fluctuating offense gives you pause, I would also recommend the White Sox run line bet (-1.5, -102).