South Side Sox Podcast 85 — PECOTA projections

Publishing alongside this podcast is Zach Hayes’ 4,000-word take on PECOTA and the 2022 White Sox — and no, it is not a misprint, our favorite projectors tab the South Siders for 94 wins! What ho!

Such a sunny outlook requires explanation, no?

• Nine seasons PECOTA has pegged the White Sox for fewer wins, eight seasons it predicted more. Overall since 2005, it’s undersold the White Sox by an average of 2 ¹⁄₂ wins per year — but man, when it misses, boy howdy
• Quick WARP (Baseball Prospectus WAR) definitions from Zach, including how it differs from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR, and how to translate the relatively stingy WARP takes for 2022
• Yasmani Grandal, SUPERSTAR
• Why the growth/continued excellence of Liam Hendriks and Aaron Bummer may render $16 million Craig Kimbrel moot
• In the face of a lukewarm projection for José Abreu, let’s chat on Pito’s Hall of Fame case instead
• Yes, it is a pivotal year for Luis Robert, and not because we’re reverting back to the roh-bear pronunciation, people
• Is Lucas Giolito our disappearing ace?
• Yoán Moncada enjoys a bullish projection, but where is his newfound power going to come from?
• The dark skies hovering over Andrew Vaughn and Garrett Crochet
• The almost impossibly-bright take on No. 3-4 starters Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech
• There’s an elephant in the room, and his name is Rodón — yes, PECOTA’s strong projection for Los makes the White Sox blowing off the QO pre-lockout look even sorrier
• Consider supporting the fine work of Baseball Prospectus with a subscription. They’re on the White Sox train now!

Listen below, on our built-in Megaphone player:

or follow along with every episode at Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or wherever you consume your podcasts. Or, you can watch the podcast on the South Side Hit Pen YouTube channel.