A look at La Russa’s prime

Since Tony La Russa returned to managing, success had been hard to come by. But, what about the times when his teams were successful? How were his decisions back in the day, and did he ever give his teams an edge with them? Let’s take a look at La Russa’s decisions during the three World Series his teams won.

Some notes before we begin:

• The only decisions we will be observing are in-game moves. So, pitching changes, bunt attempts, stolen base attempts, and things of that nature will be included.
• Also, these will all be judged on a simple good/OK/bad scale by thought process and result. These grades are subjective, and I welcome some respectful feedback on these. I have included rationales for each one, and hopefully, we all end up pretty close with these judgments and conclusions.
• Finally, most moves made during garbage time are placed in the “OK” category since they were so unlikely to have made any difference.

1989 World Series

Game 1

Starting pitcher Dave Stewart left in the game to finish a shutout with Oakland up, 5-0
Bad process, OK result
Stewart pitched a masterpiece, allowing zero runs on five hits in nine innings. However, this game was firmly within Oakland’s control early enough that even though Stewart was on fire, there was no need to have him in the game with a five-run lead in the ninth. Stewart threw 138 pitches in this game, and he entered the top of the ninth with a pitch count at 113. Stewart allowed back-to-back singles to open the inning, and at that point, removing Stewart should have been the clear decision. But that did not happen, and fortunately, Stewart ended up completing the shutout without any injury. This is a rare exception to the “garbage time decisions are in the OK category” rule because the health risk was high here.

Game 2

Rickey Henderson stolen base attempt, bottom 1, runner on first, no outs, scoreless tie
Good process, good result
Nothing complicated here. Henderson is the greatest base-stealer of all-time. Although stolen bases were very overrated across baseball in the 1980s, there is no problem with this one. (At the same time, it doesn’t exactly take a genius to know this was a smart idea.)

Hit-and-run with Dave Parker at the plate and Rickey Henderson attempting to steal third, bottom 5, runners on first and second, one out, Oakland up, 5-1
OK process, bad result
The hit-and-run, like the steal, was overrated in the 1980s, and this one worked out as poorly as possible. Parker struck out, and Henderson was caught stealing third. However, given who the batter and base-runner were, I don’t hate this decision.

Rick Honeycutt replaces Mike Moore, top 8, runner on first, no outs, Oakland up, 5-1
Good process, good result
Moore was at 114 pitches at this point, so perhaps he should have been removed a tad earlier, but this move was fine, and it worked. Honeycutt promptly got a strikeout and a double-play ground ball to get out of the inning.

Dennis Eckersley replaces Rick Honeycutt, top 9, bases empty, one out, Oakland up, 5-1
OK process, OK result
This was a very low-leverage situation, so it does not really matter, but there was no reason for Eckersley to be in this game. At this point, it would have taken a miracle for the Giants to come back. Saving Eckersley for another day would have been smarter.

Game 3

Rickey Henderson stolen base attempt, top 3, runner on second, one out, Oakland up, 2-1
Good process, good result
I have no issues with any Henderson stolen base attempt.

Rickey Henderson stolen base attempt, top 5, runner on first, no outs, Oakland up, 4-3
Good process, good result.
What a legend.

Rick Honeycutt replaces Dave Stewart, bottom 8, bases empty, no outs, Oakland up, 13-3
OK process, OK result
At this point, the game was over. Any move that was not completely ridiculous would earn a passing grade.

Gene Nelson replaces Rick Honeycutt, bottom 9, bases empty, no outs, Oakland up, 13-3
OK process, OK result
Nelson had a horrible day, but it did not matter.

Todd Burns replaces Gene Nelson, bottom 9, runner on second, two outs, Oakland up, 13-6
OK process, OK result
Oakland held on for a 13-7 win.

Game 4

José Canseco stolen base attempt, bottom 5, runner on first, no outs, Oakland up, 4-0
OK process, good result
Canseco was successful in 67% of his stolen base attempts during the 1989 regular season (6-for-9). This is very close to the break-even point of 70%, and in this case, it worked.

Gene Nelson replaces Mike Moore, bottom 7, bases empty, no outs, Oakland up, 8-2
OK process, bad result
The Athletics remained on fire, so by this point, the World Series was nearly decided. The only issue I have is that Nelson was lit up in garbage time the previous night. Nelson’s troubles continued, as San Francisco got to him again, and they got a little bit of life back as a result.

Rick Honeycutt replaces Gene Nelson, bottom 7, bases empty, one out, Oakland up, 8-4
OK process, bad result
Again, the Athletics still had some room for error, and that turned out to be big in this game. Honeycutt had a poor outing, but despite a nightmarish inning from the relievers, Oakland still had a two-run lead.

Todd Burns replaces Rick Honeycutt, bottom 7, bases empty, two outs, Oakland up, 8-6
Good process, good result
Burns retired all four batters he faced.

Dennis Eckersley replaces Todd Burns, bottom 9, bases empty, no outs, Oakland up, 9-6
Good process, good result
The Athletics won the World Series after a 1-2-3 inning.

2006 World Series

Game 1

Braden Looper replaces Anthony Reyes, bottom 9, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 7-2
OK process, OK result
Since this was garbage time, virtually any move would have been fine. Looper would have retired all three batters he faced if not for an E-5 that briefly prolonged the inevitable.

Game 2

Tyler Johnson replaces Jeff Weaver, bottom 6, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis down, 3-0
OK process, good result
Johnson retired both batters he faced.

Josh Kinney replaces Tyler Johnson, bottom 6, bases empty, two outs, St. Louis down, 3-0
OK process, good result
Kinney escaped a jam with a fly out after a walk and a hit-by-pitch.

Randy Flores replaces Josh Kinney, bottom 7, bases empty, two outs, St. Louis down, 3-0
OK process, good result
Flores allowed a leadoff single, but got out of the inning quickly after that.

Brad Thompson replaces Randy Flores, bottom 8, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis down, 3-0
OK process, good result
Thompson retired the only two batters he faced.

Adam Wainwright replaces Brad Thompson, bottom 8, bases empty, two outs, St. Louis down, 3-0
OK process, good result
Wainwright struck out the only batter he faced.

Game 3

David Eckstein bunt attempt, bottom 1, bases empty, no outs, scoreless tie
Bad process, bad result.
Eckstein, an All-Star in 2006 who had a .292 batting average and a .350 on-base percentage but who did not have blistering speed, should not have been bunting. But, he did, and Detroit took the easy out.

Chris Carpenter sacrifice bunt, bottom 8, runner on first, no outs, St. Louis up, 4-0
Good process, OK result
Because Chris Carpenter was a pitcher, a sacrifice bunt to advance a runner to second is an OK decision. The only issue I have with this move is that Carpenter did not pitch after this, so I question the decision not to employ a pinch-hitter who had a reasonable chance of providing an outcome that increased the Cardinals’ run expectancy, which sacrifice bunts never do. Then again, it was a 4-0 game in the bottom of the eighth, so at this point, it would be pretty difficult to make a game-altering blunder.

Braden Looper replaces Chris Carpenter, top 9, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 5-0
OK process, OK result
Since this was garbage time, virtually any move would have been fine. Looper retired all three batters he faced.

Game 4

Aaron Miles stolen base attempt, bottom 3, runner on first, one out, St. Louis down, 3-0
OK process, good result
Miles was 2-for-3 in stolen bases in 2006 and 30-for-48 (62.5%) throughout his career. Those marks are both a bit below the break-even point, but not enough to make this a horrible choice.

Preston Wilson sacrifice bunt, bottom 6, runner on second, no outs, St. Louis down, 3-2
Bad process, OK result
After Scott Rolen, representing the potential tying run, led off with the double, a successful sacrifice bunt lowered the Cardinals’ win probability from 51% to 48%. The runner advancing 90 feet simply does not make up for the out, especially with a hitter as decent as Wilson was. The Cardinals did not score this inning.

Josh Kinney replaces Jeff Suppan, top 7, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis down, 3-2
OK process, good result
Kinney pitched two-thirds of a scoreless inning.

Tyler Johnson replaces Josh Kinney, top 7, runner on first, two outs, St. Louis down, 3-2
OK process, good result
Johnson retired the only batter he faced.

So Taguchi sacrifice bunt, bottom 7, runner on second, no outs, St. Louis down, 3-2
Bad process, good result
Would you believe it? This is the same situation as the one we observed one inning ago. After Eckstein led off with a double, the Cardinals went with the same strategy. The good news this time, however, is that Detroit failed to capitalize on the easy out. Tigers reliever Fernando Rodney made an errant throw, Eckstein came around to score, and Taguchi advanced to second. (See what happens when you don’t make Eckstein bunt to open the inning? He went 4-for-5 with three doubles in this game, by the way.)

Braden Looper replaces Tyler Johnson, top 8, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 4-3
OK process, bad result
Looper allowed a leadoff double and a “productive out” that advanced the runner to third. That sequence lowered the Cardinals’ win probability, but the manager can hardly be blamed for this pitching change.

Adam Wainwright replaces Braden Looper, top 8, runner on third, one out, St. Louis up, 4-4
OK process, OK result
Wainwright allowed the runner he inherited to score, but that was all. (The Cardinals broke the tie in the bottom of the eighth, when Eckstein delivered a clutch RBI double with two outs.)

Game 5

So Taguchi sacrifice bunt, bottom 2, runner on first, no outs, scoreless tie
Bad process, OK result
Although Taguchi’s sacrifice bunt attempt was successful, it lowered the Cardinals’ win probability from 59% to 57%. The Cardinals should have let Taguchi try for something with more upside. (Eckstein later bailed La Russa out with an RBI single with two outs.)

Albert Pujols stolen base attempt, bottom 3, runner on first, no outs
OK process, bad result
If you can believe it, Pujols was a stolen base threat at one point in his career. In 2006, he was 7-for-9 during the regular season. But, this time, he got caught stealing. Still, I don’t hate this decision.

Adam Wainwright replaces Jeff Weaver, top 9, bases empty, no outs
Good process, good result
Weaver pitched a great game but was at 99 pitches after eight innings, and Wainwright had been very reliable for the Cardinals. The tall righthander got the job done once again, as he sealed the World Series by protecting the two-run lead.

2011 World Series

Game 1

Chris Carpenter sacrifice bunt, bottom 3, runner on first, no outs, scoreless tie
Good process, bad result
Since Carpenter is a pitcher, I have no problem with giving up an out to move a runner up 90 feet. This failure is on Carpenter, not the decision to bunt; he bunted foul with two strikes.

Jon Jay sacrifice bunt, bottom 5, runner on first, no outs, St. Louis tied, 2-2
Bad process, OK result
Although this sacrifice bunt attempt was successful, it made the Cardinals’ situation slightly worse. Jay should not have been giving up an out to advance a runner 90 feet.

Fernando Salas replaces Chris Carpenter, top 7, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 3-2
Okay process, bad result
Salas recorded one out, but then allowed a single and walk. Overall, Salas hurt the Cardinals win probability, but the thought process behind the pitching change was fine.

Marc Rzepczynski replaces Fernando Salas, top 7, runners on first and second, one out, St. Louis up, 3-2
Good process, good result
Rzepczynski struck out both batters he faced.

Octavio Dotel replaces Marc Rzepczynski, top 8, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 3-2
OK process, good result
Dotel retired both batters he faced.

Arthur Rhodes replaces Octavio Dotel, top 8, bases empty, two outs, St. Louis up, 3-2
OK process, good result
Rhodes retired the only batter he faced.

Daniel Descalso sacrifice bunt, bottom 8, runner on first, no outs, St. Louis up, 3-2
Bad process, OK result
This is the same idea as the Jay sacrifice bunt. While it advanced the runner to second, this is a trade-off that the Cardinals should not have taken.

Jason Motte replaces Arthur Rhodes, top 9, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 3-2
Good process, good result
No issues here, as Motte protected the one-run lead.

Game 2

Fernando Salas replaces Jaime García, top 8, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 1-0
OK process, good result
García was pitching phenomenally and likely could have gone a little further into this game, but given the Cardinals’ strong bullpen, I could understand removing García at 87 pitches. Salas did his job, retiring the only batter he faced.

Marc Rzepczynski replaces Fernando Salas, top 8, bases empty, one out, St. Louis up, 1-0
OK process, good result
Rzepczynski got out of the inning without a problem.

Jason Motte replaces Marc Rzepczynski, top 9, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 1-0
Good process, bad result
Sometimes, moves just don’t work out. Motte, who had been on fire, couldn’t seal the deal.

Arthur Rhodes replaces Jason Motte, top 9, runners on second and third, no outs, St. Louis up, 1-0
OK process, bad result
Rhodes allowed a game-tying sacrifice fly.

Lance Lynn replaces Arthur Rhodes, top 9, runner on third, one out, St. Louis tied, 1-1
OK process, bad result
Lynn allowed a go-ahead sacrifice fly that gave the Rangers a lead that did not relinquish.

Game 3

Fernando Salas replaces Kyle Lohse, bottom 4, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 5-3
Good process, good result
Lohse appeared to be having a good start, but he allowed three runs on four hits (two homers) to open a disastrous bottom of the fourth. Pulling Lohse here was fine.

Jon Jay stolen base attempt, top 5, runner on first, two outs, St. Louis up, 8-3
Bad process, bad result
Jay was 6-for-13 in stolen bases during the 2011 regular season. The risk far exceeded the reward, and he was caught stealing.

Lance Lynn replaces Fernando Salas, bottom 5, runners on second and third, no outs, St. Louis up, 8-4
Good process, OK result
Salas allowed three consecutive hits to open the inning, and Lynn was a reliable pitcher for the Cardinals. Lynn allowed two of the runners he inherited, but he did enough to preserve the lead.

Octavio Dotel replaces Lance Lynn, bottom 7, runner on third, one out, St. Louis up, 14-6
OK process, OK result
Nothing special here. This was a pitching switch in garbage time that changed nothing.

Mitchell Boggs replaces Octavio Dotel, bottom 9, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 16-7
OK process, OK result
Like the pitching change in the seventh, this affected nothing.

Game 4

Mitchell Boggs replaces Edwin Jackson, bottom 6, runners on first and second, one out, St. Louis down, 1-0
OK process, bad result
Boggs immediately allowed a three-run homer that put the Rangers out of striking distance. Jackson had just walked back-to-back batters, and his pitch count was at 109, so removing him was the right call, though.

Jake Westbrook replaces Mitchell Boggs, bottom 8, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis down, 4-0
OK process, good result
Westbrook pitched a scoreless inning, but by the time this move was made, the Rangers’ win probability was at 99%. So, this move had very little chance of meaning anything, and it ultimately didn’t.

Game 5

Rafael Furcal bunt, top 3, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 2-0
OK process, good result
While Furcal was too good of a hitter for me to recommend ever bunting, he was fast enough and was a good enough bunter to make me understand it. In this case, it worked, as he got a bunt single, and he advanced to second on a throwing error.

Allen Craig sacrifice bunt, top 3, runner on second, no outs, St. Louis up, 2-0
Bad process, OK result
Craig’s bunt advanced Furcal to third, but even though the sacrifice was successful, the Cardinals’ win probability dropped slightly. I would only make this trade-off if the hitter is terrible, and Craig did not fit into that category. (After Pujols drew a walk, Matt Holliday grounded into a double play, and the Cardinals failed to pad their lead.)

Rafael Furcal sacrifice bunt, top 5, runners on first and second, no outs, St. Louis up, 2-1
OK process, OK result
Due to the reasons listed earlier, I am OK with this Furcal bunt. Also, while bunting with anyone besides terrible hitters is usually bad, advancing runners from first and second to second and third with no outs is the best time to sacrifice. While Furcal was out here, both runners advanced, and the Cardinals’ win probability remained the same.

Ryan Theriot sacrifice bunt, top 8, runner on first, no outs, St. Louis tied, 2-2
Bad process, OK result
Oh my goodness. Please stop sacrificing to advance runners from first to second with a decent hitter. The sacrifice was successful, but the Cardinals’ win probability dropped.

Octavio Dotel replaces Chris Carpenter, bottom 8, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis tied, 2-2
OK process, bad result
Dotel just did not get it done.

Octavio Dotel intentionally walks Nelson Cruz, bottom 8, runner on second, one out, St. Louis tied, 2-2
Bad process, bad result
Cruz got a free pass, and like the base runner in front of him, he came around to score. This walk also gave the Rangers two free percentage points of win probability (65% to 67%).

Marc Rzepczynski replaces Octavio Dotel, bottom 8, bases loaded, one out, St. Louis tied, 2-2
OK process, bad result
Rzepczynski failed to strand two of the runners he inherited.

Lance Lynn replaces Marc Rzepczynski, bottom 8, runners on second and third, two outs, St. Louis down, 4-2
Bad process, OK result
Yeah, I don’t understand this. Lynn was brought into the game to throw four intentional balls to Ian Kinsler, and then he was removed. It didn’t change the win probability, though, so disaster was avoided.

Lance Lynn intentionally walks Ian Kinsler, bottom 8, runners on second and third, two outs, St. Louis down, 4-2
OK process, OK result
The Cardinals got out of the inning down by two. Still, this was strange.

Jason Motte replaces Lance Lynn, bottom 8, bases loaded, two outs, St. Louis down, 4-2
Good process, good result
Motte struck out the only batter he faced.

Allen Craig caught stealing second base on a hit-and-run attempt, top 9, runner on first, no outs, St. Louis down, 4-2
Bad process, bad result
Craig’s run was inconsequential, so the upside of him advancing to second was minimal. This strike-him-out-throw-him-out double play basically ended this game.

Game 6

Fernando Salas replaces Jaime García, top 4, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis tied, 2-2
OK process, bad result
Not Fernando’s day.

Lance Lynn replaces Fernando Salas, top 6, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis down, 4-3
OK process, bad result
Not Lance’s day.

Octavio Dotel replaces Lance Lynn, top 7, runner on first, two outs, St. Louis down, 6-4
OK process, bad result
After a wild pitch, Dotel allowed an RBI single that gave Texas another insurance run.

Marc Rzepczynski replaces Octavio Dotel, top 8, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis down, 7-4
OK process, good result
Finally, a good outing from a reliever. Rzepczynski retired all three batters he faced.

Jason Motte replaces Marc Rzepczynski, top 9, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis down, 7-5
Good process, good result
I applaud La Russa for using Motte in a non-save situation. The game remained within reach, and the Cardinals came up clutch in the bottom half.

Kyle Lohse sacrifice bunt, bottom 10, runners on first and second, no outs, St. Louis down, 4-2
OK process, OK result
This decreased the Cardinals’ odds of winning the game from 31% to 27%, and I would have liked to have seen something with more upside. However, the bench was starting to get thin, and options were limited. La Russa substituted Lohse, who he had more faith in to get a bunt down than Motte, who indeed had less experience with bunting. This is an interesting move, and it worked out OK, though without Lance Berkman’s heroics with two outs later in the inning, it would be very unremarkable.

Jake Westbrook replaces Kyle Lohse, bottom 11, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis tied, 9-9
OK process, good result
Westbrook delivered in a crucial moment to set up another enormous hit by David Freese.

Game 7

Arthur Rhodes replaces Chris Carpenter, top 7, runner on second, no outs, St. Louis up, 5-2
Good process, good result
This was a good time to remove Carpenter, and Rhodes retired the only batter he faced.

Octavio Dotel replaces Arthur Rhodes, top 7, runner on second, one out, St. Louis up, 5-2
OK process, good result
This pitching change was probably unnecessary, but there is nothing wrong with this, and Dotel retired both batters he faced.

Lance Lynn replaces Octavio Dotel, top 8, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 6-2
OK process, OK result
Nothing wrong with this. Virtually any reliever here would have been fine, as the Cardinals opened this inning with a 97% chance of winning the game. Lynn got the job done (but nearly all MLB relievers would have done the same).

Jason Motte replaces Lance Lynn, top 9, bases empty, no outs, St. Louis up, 6-2
OK process, OK result
Same deal as the previous pitching change.

Processes

Good: 17 (22.4%)
OK: 46 (60.5%)
Bad: 13 (17.1%)

Results

Good: 32 (42.1%)
OK: 24 (31.6%)
Bad: 20 (26.3%)

As this was strictly an analysis of in-game decisions, there could areas where La Russa may have been very effective back in the day, such as the ability to connect with his players. But, based on his most successful teams’ results on the biggest stage baseball has to offer, his in-game decisions were never anything extraordinary. Sometimes, the players on the field get the job done, and the manager is in the right place in the right time. When players are talented enough, and things are clicking, they have the ability to mask a lot of organizational weaknesses, as we saw in 2005.

As one would expect, as all of these teams won the World Series, the players normally did enough on the field to pull through with the win. Does that mean that La Russa was making moves that only a Hall-of-Famer could make? Also, while most are aware of La Russa’s inability to put players in positions to succeed in 2022, was he much better at that earlier in his career? The answer to both questions seems to be “no.”