Projecting the AL Central race: August 19

We’ve been told all season long that the White Sox have an easy second-half schedule (they do) and will play better against lesser competition.

But we can’t get ahead of ourselves. The White Sox have played all season as if the division was handed to them in March, so we won’t make the same mistake here.

The following is an attempt to examine how the schedule will likely play out, updated as each series finishes up, every few days.

I have tried to be evenhanded with these series matchups. The logic of Chicago getting swept in San Diego is that it’s a long second leg of a trip, after a demoralizing series loss in Minnesota, with the bolstered Padres are fighting to host a playoff series. The White Sox also ran out of gas by season’s end in 2020 and 2021.

Will Cleveland win five of six to end 2022? That’s tough to do, but the Royals will have much earlier cashed in their season, and the Guardians get nine games at home overall to end the year.

There are very few sweeps all told, so this presumes that the AL Central clubs, as bad as they are, never get too hot or too cold — until Cleveland at the end, the White Sox enjoy the hottest stretch, predicted to shoot from three games over at the end of August to 11 up heading into the home stretch.

So ... do the White Sox end up with the division title?

---

Heading into the second half
Twins 50-44
Guardians 46-44
White Sox 46-46

(all series are three games unless otherwise specified)

---

Eight series into the second half, and we finally have all three projected teams off the rails.

By sweeping Kansas City, the Twins are now playing one game better than anticipated.

By failing to win their four-game series against the Tigers, the Guardians lost a game off of their strong second-half pace, falling back to just three games better than predicted.

And the White Sox, by starting strong vs. Houston and ending flat, held serve, and remain a game worse than anticipated.

When we started this exercise, the season came down to a tie between Cleveland and Chicago, with Minnesota one game back. The anticipated logjam, at least right now, is no more.

Guardians 88-74 (+3 vs. prediction)
Twins 85-77 (+1)
White Sox 84-78 (-1)

---

July 22-24 predicted results
White Sox split at home with Guardians
Twins split two games on the road at Detroit

Twins 51-45
Guardians 48-46
White Sox 48-48

July 22-24 actual results
White Sox split at home with Guardians
Twins sweep two games at Detroit

Twins 52-44
Guardians 48-46
White Sox 48-48

---

July 25-28 predicted results
White Sox split two games at Colorado
Twins split two games at Milwaukee
Cleveland loses four-game series at Boston

Twins 52-46
Guardians 49-49
White Sox 49-49

July 25-28 actual results
White Sox split two games at Colorado
Twins swept in two games at Milwaukee
Cleveland splits four-game series at Boston

Twins 52-46
Guardians 50-48
White Sox 49-49

---

July 29-31 predicted results
White Sox win series over A’s
Twins lose series at San Diego
Guardians lose series at Tampa Bay

Twins 53-48
White Sox 51-50
Guardians 50-51

July 29-31 actual results
White Sox win series over A’s
Twins win series at San Diego
Guardians lose series at Tampa Bay

Twins 53-48
Guardians 52-49
White Sox 51-50

---

August 1-3 predicted results
White Sox sweep Royals
Twins win series over Tigers
Guardians sweep Diamondbacks

Twins 55-49
White Sox 54-50
Guardians 53-51

August 1-3 actual results
White Sox win series vs. Royals
Twins win series vs. Tigers
Guardians win series vs. Diamondbacks

Twins 55-49
Guardians 54-50
White Sox 53-51

---

August 4-7 predicted results
White Sox split four games at Texas
Twins split four games with Blue Jays
Guardians split four games with Astros

Twins 57-51
White Sox 56-52
Guardians 55-53

August 4-7 actual results
White Sox split four games at Texas
Twins split four games with Blue Jays
Guardians split four games with Astros

Twins 57-51
Guardians 56-52
White Sox 55-53

---

August 9-11 predicted results
White Sox split four games at Kansas City
Twins swept in two games at Dodgers
Guardians lose series at Detroit

Twins 57-53
White Sox 58-54
Guardians 56-55

August 9-11 actual results
White Sox lose four-game series at Kansas City
Twins swept in two games at Dodgers
Guardians win series at Detroit

Guardians 59-52
Twins 57-53
White Sox 56-56

---

August 12-14 predicted results
White Sox win series over Tigers
Twins lose series at Angels
Guardians lose series at Toronto

Guardians 60-54
Twins 58-55
White Sox 58-57

August 12-14 actual results
White Sox sweep Tigers
Twins lose series at Angels
Guardians win series at Toronto

Guardians 61-53
Twins 58-55
White Sox 59-56

---

August 15-18 predicted results
White Sox split four games with Astros
Twins wins series vs. Royals
Guardians win four-game series with Tigers

Guardians 64-54
Twins 60-56
White Sox 61-58

August 15-18 actual results
White Sox split four games with Astros
Twins sweep Royals
Guardians split four games with Tigers

Guardians 63-55
Twins 61-55
White Sox 61-58

---

Remaining season (as originally predicted)

White Sox lose series at Cleveland, Twins split four games with Rangers
Guardians 65-56
Twins 63-57
White Sox 62-60

White Sox lose makeup game at Kansas City
Guardians 65-56
Twins 63-57
White Sox 62-61

White Sox lose series at Baltimore, Twins lose series at Houston, Guardians split two games at San Diego
Guardians 66-57
Twins 64-59
White Sox 63-63

White Sox win series over Diamondbacks, Twins lose series against Giants, Guardians lose four-game series at Seattle
Guardians 67-60
Twins 65-61
White Sox 65-64

White Sox sweep Royals, Twins win series over Red Sox, Guardians win series over Orioles
Guardians 69-61
White Sox 69-63
Twins 66-63

White Sox win series over Twins, Guardians win series over Mariners
Guardians 71-62
White Sox 70-65
Twins 68-64

White Sox lose series at Seattle, Twins lose four-game series at Yankees, Guardians win series at Kansas City
Guardians 73-63
White Sox 71-67
Twins 69-67

White Sox split four games at Oakland, Twins win series vs. Guardians
Guardians 74-65
White Sox 73-69
Twins 71-68

White Sox sweep two games vs. Rockies, Twins sweep Royals, Guardians win series vs. Angels
Guardians 76-66
Twins 74-68
White Sox 75-69

White Sox win series at Detroit, Twins lose three of five at Cleveland
Guardians 79-68
White Sox 77-70
Twins 76-71

White Sox win series vs. Guardians, Twins win series at Kansas City
Guardians 80-70
White Sox 79-71
Twins 78-72

White Sox win series vs. Tigers, Twins win series vs. Angels, Guardians lose series at Texas
Guardians 81-72
White Sox 81-72
Twins 80-73

White Sox lose series at Minnesota, Guardians win series vs. Rays
Guardians 83-73
Twins 82-74
White Sox 82-74

White Sox swept in series at San Diego, Twins win series at Detroit
Guardians 83-73
Twins 84-75
White Sox 82-77

White Sox win series vs. Twins, Guardians win five of six games vs. Royals
Guardians 88-74
Twins 85-77
White Sox 84-78