Projecting the AL Central race: August 9

We’ve been told all season long that the White Sox have an easy second-half schedule (they do) and will play better against lesser competition.

But we can’t get ahead of ourselves. The White Sox have played all season as if the division was handed to them in March, so we won’t make the same mistake here.

The following is an attempt to examine how the schedule will likely play out, updated as each series finishes up, every few days.

I have tried to be evenhanded with these series matchups. The logic of Chicago getting swept in San Diego is that it’s a long second leg of a trip, after a demoralizing series loss in Minnesota, with the bolstered Padres are fighting to host a playoff series. The White Sox also ran out of gas by season’s end in 2020 and 2021.

Will Cleveland win five of six to end 2022? That’s tough to do, but the Royals will have much earlier cashed in their season, and the Guardians get nine games at home overall to end the year.

There are very few sweeps all told, so this presumes that the AL Central clubs, as bad as they are, never get too hot or too cold — until Cleveland at the end, the White Sox enjoy the hottest stretch, predicted to shoot from three games over at the end of August to 11 up heading into the home stretch.

So ... do the White Sox end up with the division title?

(Spoiler alert — none of the three teams end up with good enough records to even sniff a wild card, so it’s division or bust.)

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Heading into the second half
Twins 50-44
Guardians 46-44
White Sox 46-46

(all series are three games unless otherwise specified)

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Five series into the second half, and the Twins are just as forecasted, the Guardians are where the White Sox were supposed to be, and vice-versa. All three clubs held steady, with four-game series splits, so the AL Central trio as a whole remains even, actual results vs. predicted; the White Sox are a game worse than anticipated, the Guardians still one win better.

With the latest results, combined with the remaining forecast for the regular season, Cleveland has the edge.

Guardians 86-76 (+1 vs. prediction)
Twins 84-78 (even)
White Sox 84-78 (-1)

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July 22-24 predicted results
White Sox split at home with Guardians
Twins split two games on the road at Detroit

Twins 51-45
Guardians 48-46
White Sox 48-48

July 22-24 actual results
White Sox split at home with Guardians
Twins sweep two games at Detroit

Twins 52-44
Guardians 48-46
White Sox 48-48

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July 25-28 predicted results
White Sox split two games at Colorado
Twins split two games at Milwaukee
Cleveland loses four-game series at Boston

Twins 52-46
Guardians 49-49
White Sox 49-49

July 25-28 actual results
White Sox split two games at Colorado
Twins swept in two games at Milwaukee
Cleveland splits four-game series at Boston

Twins 52-46
Guardians 50-48
White Sox 49-49

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July 29-31 predicted results
White Sox win series over A’s
Twins lose series at San Diego
Guardians lose series at Tampa Bay

Twins 53-48
White Sox 51-50
Guardians 50-51

July 29-31 actual results
White Sox win series over A’s
Twins win series at San Diego
Guardians lose series at Tampa Bay

Twins 53-48
Guardians 52-49
White Sox 51-50

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August 1-3 predicted results
White Sox sweep Royals
Twins win series over Tigers
Guardians sweep Diamondbacks

Twins 55-49
White Sox 54-50
Guardians 53-51

August 1-3 actual results
White Sox win series vs. Royals
Twins win series vs. Tigers
Guardians win series vs. Diamondbacks

Twins 55-49
Guardians 54-50
White Sox 53-51

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August 4-7 predicted results
White Sox split four games at Texas
Twins split four games with Blue Jays
Guardians split four games with Astros

Twins 57-51
White Sox 56-52
Guardians 55-53

August 4-7 actual results
White Sox split four games at Texas
Twins split four games with Blue Jays
Guardians split four games with Astros

Twins 57-51
Guardians 56-52
White Sox 55-53

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Remaining season (as originally predicted)

White Sox split four games at Kansas City, Twins swept in two games at Dodgers, Guardians lose series at Detroit
Twins 57-53
White Sox 58-54
Guardians 56-55

White Sox win series over Tigers, Twins lose series at Angels, Guardians lose series at Toronto
White Sox 60-55
Twins 58-55
Guardians 57-57

White Sox split four games with Astros, Twins wins series vs. Royals, Guardians win four-game series with Tigers
White Sox 62-57
Twins 60-56
Guardians 60-58

White Sox lose series at Cleveland, Twins split four games with Rangers
Twins 62-58
White Sox 63-59
Guardians 62-59

White Sox lose makeup game at Kansas City
Twins 62-58
Guardians 62-59
White Sox 63-60

White Sox lose series at Baltimore, Twins lose series at Houston, Guardians split two games at San Diego
Twins 63-60
Guardians 63-60
White Sox 64-62

White Sox win series over Diamondbacks, Twins lose series against Giants, Guardians lose four-game series at Seattle
White Sox 66-63
Twins 64-62
Guardians 64-63

White Sox sweep Royals, Twins win series over Red Sox, Guardians win series over Orioles
White Sox 69-63
Twins 66-63
Guardians 66-64

White Sox win series over Twins, Guardians win series over Mariners
White Sox 71-64
Guardians 68-65
Twins 67-65

White Sox lose series at Seattle, Twins lose four-game series at Yankees, Guardians win series at Kansas City
White Sox 72-66
Guardians 70-66
Twins 68-68

White Sox split four games at Oakland, Twins win series vs. Guardians
White Sox 74-68
Guardians 71-68
Twins 70-69

White Sox sweep two games vs. Rockies, Twins sweep Royals, Guardians win series vs. Angels
White Sox 76-68
Twins 73-69
Guardians 73-69

White Sox win series at Detroit, Twins lose three of five at Cleveland
White Sox 78-69
Guardians 76-71
Twins 75-72

White Sox win series vs. Guardians, Twins win series at Kansas City
White Sox 80-70
Twins 77-73
Guardians 77-73

White Sox win series vs. Tigers, Twins win series vs. Angels, Guardians lose series at Texas
White Sox 82-71
Twins 79-74
Guardians 78-75

White Sox lose series at Minnesota, Guardians win series vs. Rays
White Sox 83-73
Twins 81-75
Guardians 80-76

White Sox swept in series at San Diego, Twins win series at Detroit
White Sox 83-76
Twins 83-76
Guardians 80-76

White Sox win series vs. Twins, Guardians win five of six games vs. Royals
White Sox 85-77
Guardians 85-77
Twins 84-78