The 2023 arbitration deadline arrives Friday

Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to agree on a 2023 contract with arbitration-eligible players, and the White Sox have five players still without a deal.

To review, players with three or more but fewer than six years of major league service are eligible for salary arbitration if they do not have a contract for the next season. If a team and player cannot agree on a contract by Friday, the parties exchange salary figures, and a hearing is scheduled. Prior to the hearing, both parties usually continue to attempt to work out a contract, and if they still cannot reach an agreement, an arbitration panel then determines a salary for the upcoming season, choosing either the player’s salary suggestion or the team’s.

The Sox ended the 2022 season with eight players who fell into the arbitration-eligible category, but only have five remaining, as Adam Engel, Kyle Crick, and Danny Mendick were non-tendered.

So far, the Sox have not reached an agreement with any eligible player, so let’s take a look at some stats and salary estimates (courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors).

Lucas Giolito

Age 28
Service time 5 years, 80 days
Arbitration year 3
2022 salary $7,450,000
2022 stat line 11-9, 4.90 ERA/4.06 FIP, 161.2 IP, 1.8 WAR
2023 salary estimate $10,800,000
2023 FanGraphs projected stat line 10-11, 4.11 ERA/4.10 FIP, 176 IP, 2.0 WAR

The Sox and Giolito played an exasperating game of tug-o-war last year during the arbitration process. At one point, they were seemingly arguing over a $50,000 difference, and Giolito publicly expressed that he was frustrated and disheartened. One can only hope that the two sides will avoid a similar sideshow this time around.

Giolito enters his third year of arbitration after a disappointing 2022. This season is a big one for Gio, as he heads into free agency for 2024 and the likelihood of a long-term, nine-figure contract. Can an entire offseason of work with Ethan Katz help Giolito find his 2019-21 form? If the Sox have a prayer of winning the AL Central, they will definitely need him to figure things out.

Dylan Cease

Age 27
Service time 3 years, 89 days
Arbitration year 1
2022 salary $750,000
2022 stat line 14-8, 2.20 ERA/3.10 FIP, 184 IP, 4.4 WAR
2023 salary estimate $5,300,000
2023 FanGraphs projected stat line 12-11, 3.72 ERA/3.69 FIP, 190 IP, 3.3 WAR

This is Cease’s first year of arbitration; however, he was one of 100 MLB players to collect funds from the first-ever pre-arbitration bonus pool (a pool created by the new labor deal agreed to in 2022). Cease received $2.4 million, which was the most of any player.

The 2022 season was dominant for Cease, and by far the best of his career. He finished second in voting for the Cy Young, which alone should bring him a significant pay raise. Although it sure would be nice to see the Sox sign Dylan to a long-term contract, we know how Jerry feels about signing pitchers to those deals and Cease’s willingness to risk safe money for a massive payday in 2026, so we can forget about it.

Reynaldo López

Age 29
Service time 5 years, 4 days
Arbitration year 3
2022 salary $2,625,000
2022 stat line 6-4, 2.76 ERA/1.93 FIP, 65.1 IP, 2.0 WAR
2023 salary estimate $3,300,000
2023 FanGraphs projected stat line 3-3, 3.67 ERA/3.67 FIP, 64 IP, 0.6 WAR

López, known as the “other” piece in the Giolito trade, had a solid year in 2022. As far as ERA was concerned, it was the best season of his career. Additionally, it was his third time producing a WAR of 2.0 or higher. It seems a mix of a little Ethan Katz and some LASIK eye surgery has done wonders for ReyLo’s career.

Michael Kopech

Age 26
Service time 3 years, 41 days
Arbitration year 1
2022 salary $730,000
2022 stat line 5-9, 3.54 ERA/4.50 FIP, 119.1 IP, 1.0 WAR
2023 salary estimate $2,200,000
2023 FanGraphs projected stat line 8-9, 4.57 ERA/4.54 FIP, 141 IP, 1.1 WAR

Things were looking good early on in 2022, but the injury bug bit Kopech several times, resulting in an overall average season. There were indeed glimpses of greatness, with his perfect game-chase against the Yankees coming to mind. As with so many Sox players, keeping him healthy is the key to getting the best out of Kopech in 2023.

José Ruiz

Age 26
Service time 3 years, 48 days
Arbitration year 1
2022 salary $720,000
2022 stat line 1-0, 4.60 ERA/4.43 FIP, 60.2 IP, -0.1 WAR
2023 salary estimate $1,000,000
2023 FanGraphs projected stat line 3-3, 4.13 ERA/4.43 FIP, 56 IP, 0.0 WAR

A month ago, I was a little surprised that the Sox did not non-tender Ruiz. However, now that their bullpen is a little thinner than it was a few days ago, hanging on to Ruiz and giving him $1 million to eat some innings seems like a win-win. His 2021 season was significantly better than 2022, so let’s see if the fresh-faced coaching staff can help find what ails him.

Where oh where are you, Adam, Danny, and Kyle?

The San Diego Padres signed Adam Engel to a one-year contract. The amount was undisclosed.

Danny Mendick agreed to a one-year $1 million deal with the New York Mets.

Last and certainly least, the injury-rehabbing Crick is still a free agent.