South Side Sox: All Posts by Dahlia ZahavaThe best in White Sox coverage since 2005!https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/35559/southsidesox-fave.jpg2022-04-08T05:59:00-05:00https://www.southsidesox.com/authors/dahlia-zahava/rss2022-04-08T05:59:00-05:002022-04-08T05:59:00-05:00Know Your Enemy: Detroit Tigers
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<img alt="Baltimore Orioles v Detroit Tigers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8OwY-GCF9DA-M6qoP-7HZEJ0aHY=/0x507:3712x2982/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70725231/1234386548.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>It’s the top three healthy starters vs. a whole lotta TBD in Motown.</p> <p id="6OXD0t">Finally, baseball is back. After a tense labor lockout bookended by two fascinating periods of free agency, the regular season is here. </p>
<p id="girkCX">For the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">Chicago White Sox</a>, they will begin their 162-game odyssey in a very familiar place: Detroit’s Comerica Park against the division rival Tigers. While the White Sox will be looking to once again run away with the AL Central, Detroit had a far less successful 2021 and will be hoping for substantial improvement as they exit their rebuilding phase.</p>
<p id="PbwTK0">The Tigers went through five agonizing losing seasons in a row, and they clearly have had enough. Detroit was one of the five biggest spenders in free agency, and it feels pretty good about their additions. Opening Day starter Eduardo Rodriguez came over from the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a> to be a stabilizing veteran influence aiming to stabilize a promising rotation. As well, they acquired outfielder Austin Meadows from the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Tampa Bay Rays</a> and landed free agent Javier Baez with a six-year, $140 million pact. These reinforcements beef up a surprisingly tough out of a team from the 2021 season that featured pitchers Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. </p>
<p id="5pGxGN">An addition possibly bigger than all of those, however, might be the calling up of 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson. A rookie getting put on the Opening Day roster is always a big deal, and this is one with a great draft pedigree and ability to hit for both contact and power. </p>
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<h4 id="vtO5g4"><strong>Pitching Matchups</strong></h4>
<p id="4jjURb">Friday (12:10 p.m.): Lucas Giolito vs. Eduardo Rodriguez<br>Saturday (12:10 p.m.): Dylan Cease vs. TBD<br>Sunday (12:10 p.m.): Michael Kopech vs. TBD</p>
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<h4 id="VvxVnL"><strong>Did You Know?</strong></h4>
<p id="Zy4WXm">Detroit authored two of the worst seasons in the modern era of Major League Baseball, in 2003 (43-119) and 2019 (47-114). This stands in stark contrast to their first five decades in the American League, where they were a model winning franchise since 1901.</p>
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https://www.southsidesox.com/2022/4/8/23016183/know-your-white-sox-enemy-detroit-tigersDahlia Zahava2021-10-07T14:19:43-05:002021-10-07T14:19:43-05:00The Opening Play Should Go Houston’s Way
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<img alt="Division Series - Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8lRj2-DHK3rqNGpfMDTg9eZb3z8=/0x0:8017x5345/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69965597/1235751866.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Experience plus McCullers means the smart money backs Houston.</p> <p id="Yf9n1M">It’s finally time again for postseason baseball. After two exciting wild card games, we now turn our attention to Game 1 of the ALDS, with the 93-win <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">Chicago White Sox</a> traveling to Texas for their first bout with the 95-win <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a>. The series kicks off at Minute Maid Park at 3:07 p.m. CT.<strong> </strong></p>
<h4 id="uGMGMY"><strong>The Listed Pitchers</strong></h4>
<p id="aXOwSf">Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69 ERA) will be handed the ball by the Chicago White Sox today. While he started the season off on a tear, Lynn has been far more average down the stretch, sporting a 4.46 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his final eight regular season starts. The White Sox will have to hope that the bright lights will help Lynn to settle down early and rediscover his potential Cy Young powers.</p>
<p id="XUeU2P">Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16 ERA) will be Houston’s starter. His performance has been just about the opposite of Lance, as he had a 3.00 ERA during his five September starts, as well as a truly-imposing .181 batting average.</p>
<h4 id="Nkujm3"><strong>The Breakdown</strong></h4>
<p id="iWFNmd">The Houston Astros are attempting to reach their fifth ALCS in as many years, while the Chicago White Sox will be looking for further justification that their managerial swap to Tony La Russa was the right idea. For both teams, failing to reach the <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> this year would be considered a significant failure. </p>
<p id="dA7gSj">During the regular season, Houston had Chicago’s number, putting together a 5-2 record and outscoring the Pale Hose by 42-25. However, this is a totally different White Sox team configuration from the last bout in mid-July: Chicago now can call on Luis Robert, Craig Kimbrel, Eloy Jiménez, Ryan Tepera, Reynaldo López, Gavin Sheets and César Hernández. This is a real wrecking crew going up against a pitcher who has really found his stride as of late. </p>
<p id="Jg23sY">The Astros offense is strong as well, though, and the team is 8-1 in their last nine ALDS games played at home.</p>
<h4 id="KfX3y2"><strong>The Pick</strong></h4>
<p id="hiRKVU"><strong>Houston Astros -1.5 (+146)</strong></p>
<p id="csGu6t">As scary as the White Sox can be on offense, it cannot be denied that Lynn has been a bit mediocre as of late, and that will not be good enough to silence the Astros’ bats. This White Sox team is relatively unproven in the postseason, while these Astros have been there, done that. Hammer their run line at plus money.</p>
https://www.southsidesox.com/2021/10/7/22715010/white-sox-the-opening-play-should-go-houstons-wayDahlia Zahava2021-09-05T12:34:34-05:002021-09-05T12:34:34-05:00Heavy Favorite Chicago Looks to Beat Down on Floundering Kansas City
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<img alt="MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tDCGbYUifDgsO4kVRLvfDx06rNY=/0x411:1533x1433/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69819735/usa_today_16666934.0.jpg" />
<figcaption><strong>José Abreu </strong>anticipates a lot of mashing in Sunday’s rubber game. | Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Sharp Money Market is bullish on a White Sox series win Sunday</p> <p id="oAFY0b">After getting thrashed on Saturday in another Dallas Keuchel start, the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">Chicago White Sox</a> were able to take care of business against the <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Kansas City Royals</a> last night. The rubber match today will take place at 1:10 PM CT at Kauffman Stadium.</p>
<h4 id="hzextZ"><strong>The Listed Pitchers</strong></h4>
<p id="zutlOn">Dylan Cease (11-6, 3.82 ERA) will take the mound for the White Sox. His last time out, he put together six sparkling innings, giving up only one earned run against four hits to the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a>. One batter he should worry about today is Andrew Benintendi, who has gone .500 against him with four hits and a .600 OBP.</p>
<p id="R5gOR7">Kansas City will counter with Brady Singer (3-9, 4.87 ERA). The former 2018 first round pick allowed one earned run and three hits in six innings pitched against the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a> one week ago. The ever-dangerous Eloy Jiménez only has four at-bats against Singer, but has gone .500 against him so far.</p>
<h4 id="oXkVZL"><strong>The Game Breakdown</strong></h4>
<p id="5L9iCQ">The White Sox have had some bumps along the road but are still absolutely cruising into the postseason. They score the fifth-most runs in baseball (five per game) and have won 64.4% of the games this season where they have been the moneyline favorite (67-37).</p>
<p id="K2eX2h">Meanwhile, the Royals have scored the 24<sup>th</sup>-most runs in MLB, at a rate of 4.2 per game. However, they have gone 4-3 in their last 10 games as underdogs. Kansas City is not a very good team, but they are tricky and have been able to play spoiler often enough that it can cause problems for moneyline bettors.</p>
<p id="2y9t1w">The key to this rubber match will most likely be the White Sox’s excellent bats. Yoán Moncada ranks 11<sup>th</sup> in OBP among qualifying hitters and has hit safely in 17 straight games. José Abreu had a red-hot August at the plate and has hit a team-best 28 home runs and 103 runs batted in. Do not be surprised if he smashes number 29 today off of a mediocre pitcher.</p>
<h4 id="sdbhME"><strong>Wrap-up</strong></h4>
<p id="T4L5pF">Based on the particular matchup today, we should expect another exciting, high-scoring affair. The Chicago White Sox moneyline (-172) is not too tasty, and the total runs over (8.5) is worrisome in case the Royals’ bats totally flounder and the Sox take their foot off the gas pedal with a big lead. Therefore, a run line bet on the White Sox is as good a bet as you’ll find. If you have any extra cash, consider spreading a unit or two on the Abreu home run prop (+440)</p>
<p id="vfXnen"><strong>The Pick: CHICAGO WHITE SOX 1.5 (-110)</strong></p>
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https://www.southsidesox.com/2021/9/5/22658579/heavy-favorite-chicago-white-sox-looks-to-beat-down-on-floundering-kansas-cityDahlia Zahava2021-08-23T17:14:00-05:002021-08-23T17:14:00-05:00The Sharp Money Market: Struggling Powerhouses Collide
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<img alt="Oakland Athletics v Chicago White Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fvdlCfdOD4avW0w1-HrrkXFvrqU=/0x0:3484x2323/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69766114/1334956582.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>With <strong>Lance Lynn </strong>on the mound tonight, anticipate lower run production. | Ron Vesely/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Looking at likely outcomes between two strong clubs, ride an anticipated pitchers’ duel</p> <p id="bCGJnm">While the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">Chicago White Sox</a> and <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> have hit the cover off of baseballs all season, they are both currently scuffling and looking for a good series win to right themselves. A four-game set at Toronto’s Rogers Centre begins tonight at 7:07 p.m. EST, and a tone-setting victory will have to be earned by hitting hard and pitching intelligently.</p>
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<h4 id="rS3AAz"><strong>The Listed Pitchers</strong></h4>
<p id="aiBW1M">The Toronto Blue Jays will send out Alek Manoah (5-2, 3.34 ERA). Manoah is coming off a dreadful outing against the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a>, having given up six runs across three innings of work. However, he has mostly been a bright spot for the Canadian side’s rotation and has been a strikeout machine, frequently going into the double digits.</p>
<p id="Upv2jL">The Chicago White Sox will counter with fan favorite Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.26 ERA). While he has long been talked about as a contender for the AL Cy Young award this season, he has had trouble staying in games as of late: Nine total innings of work stretched out over his past two appearances, and he has failed to pitch into the seventh inning in all but one of his most recent 11 starts.</p>
<h4 id="tqUveB"><strong>The Breakdown</strong></h4>
<p id="Epsww1">Even though the White Sox have managed to stay well ahead in a quite frankly dreadful AL Central, they have very clearly taken their foot off the gas pedal, as evidenced by their 18-18 record after the All-Star break. Chicago still has a 10-game lead over the rest of the division and find themselves as the only AL Central club with a record better than .500. Their postseason inclusion is a no-brainer, but they have got to start playing good baseball, or else find themselves getting squashed when the games matter most.</p>
<p id="5z8UaN">The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are fighting for their postseason lives. Sitting 4 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>2</sub> games out of the final wild card spot and being given an 11.4% chance by FanGraphs of making the playoffs, Toronto has its work cut out for it. Luckily, they are playing great at Rogers Centre, going 10-4 after having to play their home games in Florida and Buffalo for the past two seasons.</p>
<h4 id="kMmEsE"><strong>The Pick</strong></h4>
<p id="DNnmNW">Lance Lynn should find himself with a bit of extra rest after getting ejected after only four innings of work in his last appearance. Hopefully he will be focused and avoids throwing anything at an umpire during his next substance check. The White Sox have mostly been on cruise control, but have gotten fantastic contributions at the plate from Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez — and they will need all the help they can get to pull out a victory.</p>
<p id="3GMcEv">The Blue Jays have lost to the dregs of the American League as of late, but will feel confident as they send their young ace out to fight a probable pitcher’s battle in their native Canada.</p>
<p id="ANagrf">Both teams have lineups that can light up at any time, but runs will be hard to find while the two starters are both in the game. In their earlier three-game series this year, the under hit in all three games. However, I am choosing to avoid dealing with an uneven Toronto bullpen and am instead focusing on the first half under for total runs. Look for these two clubs to focus on pitching and defense early, until team one breaks away.</p>
<p id="Dsbz2r"><strong>Pick: </strong>First Five (Innings) Under 4.5 (-115)</p>
https://www.southsidesox.com/2021/8/23/22638601/the-white-sox-sharp-money-market-struggling-powerhouses-collideDahlia Zahava2021-08-12T15:40:59-05:002021-08-12T15:40:59-05:00The Smart Money Line: The Field of Betting Dreams
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<img alt="MLB: New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HY3cXhFktt30oO_MznTzjvjG9J0=/8x0:4256x2832/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69717823/usa_today_16554564.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>With heavy play on the White Sox tonight, take a hard look at the underdog</p> <p id="zH1M3C">Tonight brings us one of the most heavily-promoted games on this season’s Major League Baseball calendar: the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">Chicago White Sox</a> and the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a> at the famous Field of Dreams. A game between two of the biggest American League ball clubs, with beautiful retro-style uniforms, at a stadium from a beloved piece of baseball movie history? Sign me up. </p>
<p id="p30v8d">This game is already bringing in a ton of additional attention from more casual fans, and as such there is a lot more betting action on this game than usual. While this contest should be a wonderful spectacle no matter who you cheer for, there is one betting side that sharp bettors have been jumping all over.</p>
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<h4 id="FfDR2c"><strong>The Listed Pitchers</strong></h4>
<p id="0NDu3y">Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.04 ERA) is getting the start for the Chicago White Sox in the Field of Dreams game. This spot was originally supposed to go to Carlos Rodón, who has been dynamite for the South Siders this season. Most teams would panic when such a talent goes on the IL, but Chicago arguably has two aces this year. Lynn is the current favorite to win the AL Cy Young award and has three gorgeous fastball pitches: a 92 mph cutter, 95 mph 4-seamer, and 93 mph sinker. He throws hard and suppresses hard contact very well, which has translated to quite a bit of success.</p>
<p id="OP9m57">The opposition will start trade deadline acquisition Andrew Heaney (7-8, 5.45 ERA). Heaney has been solid for most of his career but has a major issue with giving up home runs, as can be attested by his career mark of 1.57 HR/9. This year, he has shifted his pitching arsenal to focus more on his 4-seamer and curve, to mixed results. Opposing teams have absolutely teed off on his 4-seamer, which he throws 60% of the time. For his sake, he needs to start to fall back on his changeup and slider more.</p>
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<h4 id="DusS3n"><strong>The Hitters</strong></h4>
<p id="MfzFxx">The New York Yankees have infamously had a lot of trouble with COVID-19 protocols, and they are currently without Anthony Rizzo, Gary Sánchez, and others for that reason. While they have some misleading metrics in their favor such as xwOBA (.326) the Yankees are pretty dreadful in two very important departments: They have hit into 109 double plays (most in the majors) and have a collective OPS of .650 with RISP (second worst in the majors).</p>
<p id="0sbT5G">The Chicago White Sox on paper should be in a much better spot to generate some runs. They rank fifth in the league for in OPS with RISP (.808) and are a top-three offense when hitting Heaney’s favorite pitches (second against changeups, fourth against curveballs, and seventh against fastballs). They also have a returning Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert to add to the regular lineup.</p>
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<h4 id="AKds5V"><strong>The Pick</strong></h4>
<p id="EUUTSm">Chicago is a very heavy favorite in this marquee matchup, and their moneyline has attracted 71% of all bets — but only a little more than half of the money wagered have been on them.</p>
<p id="qkYy2L">As for New York, their moneyline has attracted the other half, but with just 29% of the tickets. What does this tell me? Sharp bettors are pounding on an underdog club in a neutral ballpark with a lot of eyes on them, and who am I to disagree? The White Sox look very good, but have also faltered a lot against bad teams after the All-Star break. Casual bettors have driven Chicago’s moneyline pricing up to an incredible degree and I see little value on playing it. Therefore, I’m going to go with the wiseguy action tonight.</p>
<p id="RYVikS"><strong>Sharp Money: Yankees +140</strong></p>
https://www.southsidesox.com/2021/8/12/22622287/white-sox-yankees-the-smart-money-line-the-field-of-betting-dreamsDahlia Zahava2021-07-23T16:43:36-05:002021-07-23T16:43:36-05:00The Sharp Money Market for July 23, 2021
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<img alt="Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ad04ScmbEdX7ihnHB1ggWbl_EOk=/10x0:3046x2024/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69624572/492616663.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A pitchers’ duel in the Midwest </p> <p id="CPzW3b">Tonight, the AL Central-leading <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">Chicago White Sox</a> (58-38) will take on the NL Central frontrunners, the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Milwaukee Brewers</a> (56-41), with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. CST. This will be the beginning of a three-game series between the Sox and the Brew Crew, but perhaps even more importantly it is the start of a seven-game journey away from the confines of the South Side’s Guaranteed Rate Field.</p>
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<h4 id="jGHdB8"><strong>The listed pitchers</strong></h4>
<p id="G6ufto"><strong> </strong>Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.39 ERA) will take the mound for Milwaukee, and he has quietly been one of the better pitchers in the National League. While he did not do so well in his most recent start against the pesky <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a>, a game where he gave up three earned runs over five innings pitched, he has been electric at Milwaukee’s American Family Field, where his record stands at 4-1. His home ERA of 2.04 is pretty fantastic, as well as his home 0.72 WHIP.</p>
<p id="IYeGRD">The White Sox will turn to Lucas Giolito (8-6, 3.90 ERA). He was absolutely stellar in his most recent game against the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a>, pitching a complete game and only giving up one earned run, in addition to eight strikeouts. Of the Brewers players he has faced in his career, he’s held them to a .194 batting average.</p>
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<h4 id="sbCqEa"><strong>The pick</strong></h4>
<p id="x0SaSS">This interleague clash has “pitchers’ duel” written all over it. Because the White Sox and Brewers have done so well to this point in the season, it feels very risky to take any moneyline or run line action. The White Sox have been merely so-so on the road this year, but this is a team that is liable to get hot during any given inning, even with the rash of injuries it has dealt with this summer. Chicago has absolutely destroyed opposing teams, to the tune of a +124 run differential this season, but Peralta should be up to the task of limiting baserunners as much as anyone else. </p>
<p id="tGuVzJ">For my money, I am leaning towards a total runs bet of U-8. This game should prove to be hard-fought and may come down to a single at-bat. I believe the Brewers will want to set the tone for this series by limiting runs, and this is probably the best matchup this weekend to give us that sort of result.</p>
<p id="LN5FDx"><strong>Prediction: </strong>Under 8 runs (-110) </p>
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https://www.southsidesox.com/2021/7/23/22590984/white-sox-the-sharp-money-market-for-july-23-2021Dahlia Zahava2021-07-03T21:36:08-05:002021-07-03T21:36:08-05:00The Sharp Money Market for July 4, 2021
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<img alt="MLB: JUL 01 White Sox at Astros" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/euhy0qnuy8MInW6gjqmliXgkTXo=/0x184:2988x2176/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69539358/618907816.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Expect offensive fireworks on Independence Day </p> <p id="eHLUJY">The <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a> and <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a> will wrap up a three-game weekend series on the Fourth of July, and the first two games were high-scoring. Chicago’s bats came alive in their previous series against the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a>, and that trend carried on when they traveled to the Motor City. </p>
<p id="wWI9SP">While the Tigers are still far behind the White Sox in the AL Central standings, they have been an entertaining team and have been a personal betting darling for me. Let us break down the most appealing betting angle for the final game of this series.</p>
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<h4 id="AiQLbI"><strong>The Listed Pitchers</strong></h4>
<p id="dQhJJB">Lucas Giolito (6-5, 3.84 ERA) will be taking the mound during this matinee game for the White Sox. In his most recent start against the Minnesota Twins, he was tagged for three earned runs and only managed one strikeout despite lasting six innings. Regardless, he was able to get the win last time out. If Giolito’s stuff is not what it should be on Sunday, he will have to expect more from his teammates, as they have generated an average of 4.39 in run support in his starts.</p>
<p id="GSgCr7">For the Detroit Tigers, rookie Matt Manning (1-2, 8.16 ERA) will be turned to. He was disastrous in his most recent start against Cleveland, a 13-5 romp in which Manning gave up nine earned runs. There is still time for him to turn his season around, but the early returns are not promising. He has yet to last longer than 5 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings in the three games he has started in 2021, but he has managed to get 5.54 runs per game in support. If he can limit his mistakes against a dangerous White Sox lineup, there is a good chance that his team can handle the rest.</p>
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<h4 id="7J3lsG"><strong>The Hot Hitters</strong></h4>
<p id="Q5hSh2">The White Sox recently have gotten a ton of production out of their veteran players as well as their rookies. Despite seeing their winning streak ended in a 11-5 drubbing at Comerica Park on Saturday, the bats have been impressive. The new additions of infielder/outfielder Gavin Sheets and third baseman Jake Burger were quieted on Saturday, but they’ve otherwise produced offensively. Last week, Sheets became the first Sox player to get at least one hit and RBI in each of his first four career games, while Burger had two hits in his debut. </p>
<p id="svnQ0T">In the game against Detroit on Saturday, the White Sox were able to establish an early lead thanks to Tim Anderson’s two doubles and two runs, Leury García’s two-run homer, and the two RBIs from the great José Abreu. It would be easy to talk yourself into thinking that the White Sox’s last game was an aberration during a stretch of great, winning baseball.</p>
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<h4 id="Jc5oHm"><strong>The Pick</strong></h4>
<p id="Jf3NJl">For my money, I will have to go on the run total over, which currently stands at 8.5 runs (-122). The Tigers are very unpredictable, and you never know whether it is going to be one of their games that features three runs — or close to 20. I trust an exceptionally good White Sox lineup to take advantage of Matt Manning and knock him out early in the game. If the Tigers’ fluctuating offense gives you pause, I would also recommend the White Sox run line bet (-1.5, -102).</p>
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<p id="2YAirZ"><strong> </strong></p>
https://www.southsidesox.com/2021/7/3/22562504/white-sox-betting-the-sharp-money-market-for-july-4-2021Dahlia Zahava2021-06-28T13:27:51-05:002021-06-28T13:27:51-05:00Twins vs. White Sox Betting: A Tale of Two Teams
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<figcaption>Dinendra Haria/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The South Siders are looking to get healthy vs. bottom-dwellers, but the safe play is to go with the hot hand</p> <p id="VG6nYa">Two weeks ago, you would think that it would be easy to find a sharp betting angle in a Twins/<a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a> series. </p>
<p id="IQfoHn">A lot has changed since then, with Minnesota winning seven of their last nine despite otherwise being a massive disappointment so far this season compared to preseason projections. On the South Side of Chicago, a White Sox squad that had a somewhat comfortable lead in the American League Central has dropped seven of its last nine.</p>
<p id="5fJovW">The Twins are white-hot right now, with a hard-hitting lineup with more home runs than all but two teams this season. While their pitching staff is the worst in the American League with a bottom-five ERA this season, I am confident that the Twins can crush the ball enough to at least somewhat make up for their poor pitching. This becomes even more problematic for Chicago, considering how difficult it can be to keep the ball in the yard at Guaranteed Rate Field.</p>
<p id="ixfZLQ">For the White Sox, injuries have marred the latter half of June, and it does not help that slugger José Abreu was hit in the knee on Sunday with a pitch by right-handed reliever JT Chargois of the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a>. He remains day-to-day and the Sox will want him back in the lineup soon. A homestand against an AL Central basement-dwelling Minnesota team could be just what the doctor ordered, but Chicago will have to regroup and refocus in order to handle business.</p>
<h4 id="EoqToN"><strong>The Pitching Matchup</strong></h4>
<p id="Fl2kjd">The Twins will be sending out Kenta Maeda (3-2, 4.85 ERA) while the White Sox will counter with Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.80 ERA) on Monday evening. Both pitchers had a dreadful beginning to the 2021 season, but they have both since righted the ship with varying degrees of success. Maeda has had a week of rest, with his last start being a 5 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub>-inning appearance while giving up two runs. In Giolito’s previous seven outings, he has managed to reach seven strikeouts in all but one of those games. He has also managed to last six innings in eight straight starts.</p>
<h4 id="u7Ptb8"><strong>The Pick</strong></h4>
<p id="CZwC4e">The total is a really appealing angle, with the under being 5-2 in the previous seven games between Chicago and Minnesota at Guaranteed Rate Field. Additionally, the game opened with a total of 10.5 and has since been driven down to 8.5 by sharp bettors. Personally, I feel like the total carries some risk on Monday night, with the Twins offense being so strong and the White Sox still being able to tear Minnesota’s bullpen asunder even in their current weakened state. </p>
<p id="xUWDbk">If you are going to risk a bet on the total, I completely understand, but I am instead going to be laying my money on the Twins moneyline (<a href="https://mi.wynnbet.com/sportsbook.shtml?sport=BASEBALL?utm_campaign=prospecting&utm_medium=display&utm_source=vox-sbnation&utm_term=sports&utm_content=wynnbet">+120 as of this writing, odds courtesy of WynnBET</a>). The White Sox are struggling right now, so I am going with the hot hand and taking Minnesota at this number before it changes too much more.</p>
https://www.southsidesox.com/2021/6/28/22554350/minnesota-twins-vs-chicago-white-sox-betting-a-tale-of-two-teamsDahlia Zahava2021-06-27T09:07:00-05:002021-06-27T09:07:00-05:00Bettors Betting Better: An Introduction to Baseball Betting
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<img alt="Sports Betting In Delaware" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KUZ5og2ubfaberX1QHpEqkwlhPA=/0x37:5190x3497/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69510193/974389322.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Stan Grossfeld/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Our new insider outlines the basics of baseball wagers</p> <p id="zKgN5r">[<em>With a nod to the realities of sports wagering making inroads into all major sports, South Side Sox is inviting a new writer, Dahlia Zahava, to provide inside skinny and sharp tips on the baseball betting world, as it pertains to the White Sox. She launches her work with us by explaining the basis of baseball betting.—Brett</em>]</p>
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<p id="HV8MQg">The world is certainly changing where the mainstream perception of sports betting is concerned. You have probably heard advertisements before your favorite sports podcasts that tell you all about the great introductory offers for an established betting app, or you have seen pop-ups online. Legalized wagering on sporting events has become increasingly more common, with Ohio as of this writing becoming the latest state to give in. </p>
<p id="vuFcV8">Even if you are a lifelong fan of baseball, you might be very confused about how all this works. That is where this helpful primer comes in.</p>
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<h4 id="odZ2fr"><strong>The Basic Idea</strong></h4>
<p id="SAh1lE">After horse racing, baseball was the second sport to really become a backbone for sports betting. A naturally analytical game, baseball has amazed many with its spectacular moments just as much as it has enamored those of us who have a keen mind for numbers. ERA, WHIP, WAR – these are just the top of the iceberg that is sabermetrics, and chances are you have become quite acquainted with those formulas just by way of being a baseball fan. <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb">Fantasy baseball</a> fans perhaps have even more exposure to these ideas. With baseball betting, you can now make money with that knowledge, perhaps even enough for it to become a full-time job.</p>
<h4 id="HagFqa"><strong>Types of Bets</strong></h4>
<p id="WBpixz">All right, once you have figure out which online betting app or in-person oddsmaker you will be working with, you will want to understand the ways in which you can bet on baseball. These types of bets that you will see are just the most foundational kinds, as you will soon find out that you can bet on literally every minute aspect of the game.</p>
<h4 id="H3A3xJ"><strong>The Moneyline</strong></h4>
<p id="dt0iqK">This is the bread-and-butter of betting. You have probably done a small wager with a buddy over the outcome of a big game in the past, and while a professional moneyline bet is a little bit more complicated, it is virtually the same. The idea is to make a binary choice between one of the two teams competing in a game. These two choices will be accompanied by odds; three-digit numbers that are preceded by either a + or -. </p>
<p id="ugIXKl">Let’s work with an example where the favored home team (let’s say the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a>) has listed odds of -110, while the underdog away team has been given odds of +100 by the oddsmaker.</p>
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<li id="uRUybK">For this line, the White Sox are the favorite, but only slightly. Calculating the break-even rate on the favorite moneyline is simple: merely divide the line by itself less 100 (-100/-210). Therefore, you are looking at a 52.4% break-even percentage for this White Sox game.</li>
<li id="nW1LeM">The underdog team, with listed odds of +100, have a break-even percentage of 50%.</li>
<li id="OYIaT2">The winner of the bet is the team that leads at the conclusion of the game, including extra innings if they are necessary.</li>
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<p id="5Gl91f">So, why would you not just repeatedly bet the favorite? Because baseball is wildly unpredictable, and you are out to make a profit. Underdogs, especially of the away-team variety (affectionately known in betting circles as <em>road dogs</em>), win frequently enough that you would be foolish to only bet on favorites. If you always bet $100 on a White Sox team that is -170, you would have to win at a rate of 62.9% in order to generate profit, and each loss at those odds would mean a loss of $100 each time. If you win that same -170 bet less than 62.9% of the time, you are looking at a financial loss. </p>
<p id="bjXLY2">This is why professional bettors who largely deal with big amounts of cash (these are known as <em>sharp bettors</em>) tend to look for profitable angles, like a road dog team that has a matchup advantage where starting pitching is concerned, or boasts a lockdown bullpen, or has an exciting new rookie hitter debuting in that game who will probably wreck baseballs like a demigod. The sharp bettor treats the odds listed by oddsmakers as a market, and the key to succeeding in any market is to become good at spotting inefficiencies before everyone else can.</p>
<h4 id="ScgEN5"><strong>Total Runs</strong></h4>
<p id="FBYkhV">The total runs bet is the other most common baseball bet. Here, oddsmakers set a number that represents the combined total runs in a game, which means all the offense generated by both the home and away squads. These numbers are, but not always, given in increments of half-runs. For example, if total runs are listed as 7.5, you will either bet the over (at least eight combined runs are scored in the game) or the under (no more than seven runs are scored in the game). These bets are typically straight 11/10 bets with -110 odds, so it comes down to analyzing things such as the ERA of the listed starting pitchers, the strength of the bullpens, or the quality of the hitters that are penciled into the lineup. Even if the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> put Jacob DeGrom on the bump and he puts up seven scoreless innings, his bullpen or the hitters of his own team could push the game past its listed total runs in the blink of an eye.</p>
<h4 id="NiqZMu"><strong>The Run Line</strong></h4>
<p id="yQ9ghh">Baseball does not have a point spread given by oddsmakers (as in, odds that a basketball team would win a game by at least -7.5 points or keep it close enough to end the game within +7.5 points) but there are major differences in quality when it comes to MLB teams, and that is where the run line bet comes into play. The favorite will always be listed as a -1.5 handicap on their final score (as in, the favorite needs to score at least two more runs than the other team) and the underdog will have a +1.5 handicap applied to their score (which means your <em>action</em>, or bet, will pay out if the underdog either wins or manages to keep the game close enough that they only lose by one run). There will not be any standard 11/10 bets as you would normally see with total run bets, and instead are usually offered at odds equivalent to a moneyline bet that is <em>plus</em> 80 to 110 points (the favorite) or <em>minus</em> 80 to 110 points (the underdog). If you are really confident that the White Sox can absolutely crush their opponent that day, it probably would be a good idea to take the <em>juice </em>(plus odds) on their run line, rather than reducing your potential winnings by betting on an expensive moneyline.</p>
<h4 id="CIB8Mi"><strong>ACTION conditions, 5 Inning Lines, Player Props, and the Rest</strong></h4>
<p id="yHDYBO">What if you place your moneyline wager based solely on the starting pitcher or pitchers on the mound, and one of them, or even both, are scratched late? Have no fear, because <strong>ACTION conditions</strong> exist. When placing your moneyline wager, you have the option of protecting your bet in case of such a situation happening. If you really do not want to take the White Sox if Dylan Cease is a late scratch, then simply choose Cease as condition of the bet, and if he is unable to take the mound then that bet is simply canceled, even if the bet was made in conjunction with others, which is known as a <em>parlay</em>.</p>
<p id="jAz1sh">The <strong>5 inning line</strong> cuts a normal baseball game in half, so the conditions of the bet either will or will not pay out based on what happens through the middle of the 5<sup>th</sup> inning. This action can be taken either as a moneyline or run line bet (typically at a lowered number like -0.5 or +0.5) and can be a smart play if you are confident in a starting pitcher or strong lineup but not necessarily jazzed about the bullpen situation. These bets take some of the drama out of the equation.</p>
<p id="z2ILcD"><strong>Player props</strong> are conditional on what an individual player achieves. An example of this sort of bet would be betting the over/under on Dallas Keuchel’s strikeouts, or taking straight action on Tim Anderson hitting a home run. Player props are fun side bets that can liven up your ticket and can also be combined in a parlay with more traditional bets like a moneyline or run line.</p>
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<p id="BJ5o4x">Now, you are probably ready to scrounge up some cash and place some wagers. Maybe you are interested in a basic occasional one-off bet on a Sox moneyline, or you want to be a hardcore bettor who targets market inefficiencies and goes for the huge paydays in the form of parlay bets. </p>
<p id="QUNT7D">I have won as little as $10 on a single bet, and then turned around and used that $10 to craft a parlay bet that generates massive income — like a bet I placed earlier this month that netted me over $4,000. </p>
<p id="wa9bwi">Either way, the most important thing to remember is that sports betting can be a fun, productive way to put your knowledge to work. If it stops being fun, then it is OK to take a break and mentally regroup. Baseball betting will still be there when you get back.</p>
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https://www.southsidesox.com/2021/6/27/22552330/white-sox-bettors-betting-better-an-introduction-to-baseball-bettingDahlia Zahava