Fanshots

How Much Skill Do Pitchers Possess In Preventing HR?

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"So, when deciding whether to include HR in a batter ball ERA metric, you need to really know how many air balls you have. From 2002-09, there were 285 pitchers that had more than 353 air balls, or about 35 pitchers per season. That is, for about one pitcher a team, the HR per air ball metric contained more skill than noise. And so, if your choice is: HR per airball or not, then you need to choose not, if it’s an either/or case. But, as you add career data to a pitcher’s performance, then you the HR per airball becomes a choice of definitely yes, include. As I said, I have 318 pitchers with 600 air balls, and so, to throw that away would be foolish. " This is pretty sweet all the way around and gets at a particular controversy present various pitching metrics encounter when they make choices to represent HR skill. FIP of course counts every one against the pitcher who gives it up, while xFIP expects that a constant percentage of fly balls will go for a home run. While Tango uses air balls here (an attempt to avoid FB/LD stringer issues, afaik), the result is pretty stark. Single season FIP overweights HR allowed, while xFIP's use of the simple mean (i.e. regressing 100%) is a better metric something like 90% of the time. There is a skill in preventing HR on air balls, but it requires a lot of balls in play to normalize.

mlb.com projected white sox line-ups

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CHICAGO WHITE SOX Projected Opening Day lineup 1 LF Juan Pierre 2 2B Gordon Beckham 3 RF Carlos Quentin 4 1B Paul Konerko 5 C A.J. Pierzynski 6 CF Alex Rios 7 DH Mark Kotsay 8 3B Mark Teahen 9 SS Alexei Ramirez Projected rotation 1 LHP Mark Buehrle 2 RHP Jake Peavy 3 RHP Gavin Floyd 4 LHP John Danks 5 RHP Freddy Garcia Projected bullpen CL RHP Bobby Jenks SU LHP Matt Thornton SU RHP J.J. Putz MI RHP Tony Pena MI RHP Scott Linebrink MI LHP Randy Williams MI RHP Sergio Sanots

Can These Sox Prospects Cross the Threshold?

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I thought larry would like this. Answering the question: what's the minimum batting requirement for the top Sox prospects to be at least average big leaguers?

Mitch Williams, yes that Mitch Williams, says the Twins already lost the AL Central

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"If I'm going to speak honestly, I think the injury to Joe Nathan takes away the Twins' opportunity to win the Central," Williams told "The Mully & Hanley Show" Tuesday on WSCR-AM 670. "That's not a slam on them. I just think he's so important." Since we all know the Twins already won the 2010 World Series, I guess that means they took the wild card. But hey, the Sox still have a shot at the AL Central crown.

Yahoo! AL Central Preview

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What I find interesting especially is the picture of Rios on the right hand side about mid-way through with the caption: "Alex Rios has a six-year career batting average of .330." They meant on-base percentage, but who's watching? Also includes some snippets about the other teams in the division, some quotes from Andruw Jones, Alex Rios, and Mark Kotsay, and comes equipped with a poll. Enjoy

Ozzie Guillen has plenty of at-bats for guys not named Jim Thome: "One thing I'm going to ask my...

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Ozzie Guillen has plenty of at-bats for guys not named Jim Thome: "One thing I'm going to ask my players in my meeting is to be patient," Guillen said. "I know everyone wants to be in the lineup, especially on Opening Day. Be patient. Don't feel left out. I'm the type of guy who likes to play guys a lot, especially the bench. I've done that the past few years. They're going to get their at-bats. Guillen to White Sox: You’ll get your at-bats

Steroids in Baseball Revisited

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The steroids discussion lasts about 25 minutes, but I'd recommend listening to the whole thing if you've got an hour to spare (even if only in the background). Warning, WU -- you will dislike this man. Not only is he a steroid skeptic, he's also a marathon-running-and-jogging skeptic.

Baseclogging

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Last year, when there was NOT a man on on second, runners on first scored 42.6% of the time on a double. When there was a guy on second, runners from first scored 45.3%. You read that right, there is no such thing as clogging the bases.

he has the best changeup in all of baseball right now. His changeup is starting to look like Pedro...

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he has the best changeup in all of baseball right now. His changeup is starting to look like Pedro Martínez circle changeup. I wonder if Danks is also trying the circle changeup too. I'm thinking he definitely has the best off-speed pitch of any pitcher in baseball. Hell, he might even be trying a forkball and gyroball at times. Danks is a sneaky and tricky pitcher. I think he is so underrated. loves me some johnny danks

Cheat's White Sox Preview for SB*N

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Not exactly written for you guys, but I figured I should post it... Check out U-God's Royals preview below